Gayle Force Press

NBA 2011-12 preseason predictions

 

MVP:

1. LeBron James

2. Kevin Durant

3. Zach Randolph

Rookie of the Year:

1. Kemba Walker

2. Kawhi Leonard

3. Kyrie Irving

 

Most Improved Player:  

1. Greg Monroe

2. Derrick Favors

3. Mike Conley

 

Coach of the Year:  

1. Rick Adelman

2. Lionel Hollins

3. Erik Spoelstra

 

Pacific Division Champion:  Los Angeles Clippers

Northwest Division Champion:  Oklahoma City Thunder

Southwest Division Champion:   Memphis Grizzlies

Southeast Division Champion:  Miami Heat

Central Division Champion:  Chicago Bulls

Atlantic Division Champion:  New York

 

Western Conference Champion:  Memphis Grizzlies

Eastern Conference Champion:  Miami Heat

 

NBA Champion:  Miami Heat

 

This year will be the kind of regular spring that will allow for the players to have more control over games than coaches. That’s  a substantial shift from the past decade plus when tight reined coaches have attempted to dictate every element of gameplay.

 

This year, many games will be decided by depth, continuity, energy and intensity.  Young teams with intact cores and excellent playmakers will triumph over defense and system oriented teams. I’m looking forward to seeing a few 130-128 games and the changing of the guard portended by last year’s playoffs.  Can anyone say- Grizz/Heat Finals?

 

 FDO

 

Some Bonds Can’t Be Cashed In

 

Barry Bonds was convicted of obstruction of justice in the BALCO case. Apparently our government has spent something like $50 million on this effort. It’s stunning on multiple fronts. Bonds won’t have to serve any jail time and isn’t banned from working Major League Baseball. Typically, a player with his pedigree would have his pick of jobs but that won’t happen for Bonds.

 

ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian says that the taint of steroids is too strong for baseball teams to take a chance by hiring a player who is associated with the drugs. That’s why Barry Bonds won’t be employed by a major league team again. I disagree strongly with his reasoning.

 

Mark McGwire's job as the hitting coach in St. Louis is evidence that it's not about steroids; it's about personality. If you're beloved, you're more easily forgiven. In ‘98 McGwire lied repeatedly about his use of PEDs but he's been given a chance to work in MLB again. He never demonstrated any attempt to give back any gains he made from his drug use. He never donated the money he made or asked to be removed from the record books. Nope. He just apologized.

 

And that was enough apparently to gain a high level of forgiveness. There were virtually no fans who were abusive to him as the Cardinals traveled this season and his history only came up a couple times during the teams unlikely run to a World Series championship. Big Mac is back!

 

The contrast could not be clearer when it comes to Barry Bonds. As much as some people would like to see Bonds back in the game, it won't happen simply because he won't a) put on the cape of public contrition or b) have the fan support to allow a team to hire him without issue. The Giants know that he (and they) would be publicly vilified as soon as he wore their uniform again, even as a hitting coach just like McGwire. 

 

Ultimately, Kurkjian is right and Bonds is likely done with MLB.  (Rather, MLB is likely done with Bonds.)  But don’t believe that it’s because of what he did. After all, we now know that scores of players knowingly, willingly and deliberately took PEDs. It’s not the what; it’s the who. And that’s the last sad chapter of this entirely sad story.   

 

 

FDO

 

 

One Thing I Really Like Is...Replacement Names

 

NBA Nicknames that Replace Given Names

Here’s the corollary to the original post about nicknames.

The NBA has had a vast number of players whose given names have been virtually replaced by their nicknames. Replaced to the point it would seem more peculiar to use their given name. These are the ones I can think of right now although there are probably many others. I’m not even counting the guys who often have their nicknames used but not always. That means there’s no Bones Barry, no Cat Mobley and no Clyde Frazier here. Even without them, this is an awesome list.

 

Magic Johnson

Pearl Washington

Tree Rollins

Tiny Archibald

Moochie Norris

Bimbo Coles

Muggsy Bogues

Doc Rivers

Spud Webb

Boobie Gibson

Slick Watts

Buck Williams

Mookie Blaylock

Pooh Richardson

Sleepy Floyd

Fat Lever

Cornbread Maxwell

Flip Murray

Rip Hamilton

Speedy Claxton

Truck Robinson

 

Yep, this is quite a list. I repeat myself. I love nicknames.

 

FDO

 

Late Additions:

Fly Williams

Smush Parker

 

One Thing I Don't Like Is...

 

When I type ‘E’, my computer doesn’t go to ESPN.com automatically. This is not a good sign. Let me explain. 

 

I love sports. I enjoy reading, thinking, watching and even writing about sports. Yet, my computer’s default for ‘E’ is Edline, a Website that I use to update grades, share resources and provide assignments for my students. What the computer is trying to tell me is simply that I use Edline more than I use ESPN. <smh> I repeat: This is not a good sign. 

 

It’ll be great to have Winter Break arrive so I can give ESPN the place of prominence it deserves!

 

 

FDO

 

 

One Thing I Don't Like Is...

 

Green Bay’s coach Mike McCarthy took a few seconds on ESPN’s Mike and Mike show Thursday to consider what his team needs to improve upon in the remainder of the season.

His answer: forcing more fumbles. 

In this worst of all possible years to be both a Colts and Vikings fan, I was tempted to vomit. 

 

 

FDO

 

 

One Thing I Don't Like Is...

 

How much I miss the NBA! 

 

Watching a high school basketball game tonight, I realized I was psychoanalyzing one of the players based on her free throw shooting. I got it bad, folks. C'mon, December 25, c'mon! 

 

FDO

 

 

The Cowboys Get Poked

 

Oklahoma State has 2 great reasons to be mad that they’re on the outside of the BCS Championship Game looking in. 1- The other teams have already played. Ok, that’s just obvious.

 

#2 is the biggie. The only game Oklahoma State lost this year was played right after the crash that killed 2 coaches of the women’s basketball team. Many folks were surprised the game was even played. Doesn’t that unpleasant reality make a difference to anyone? The Cowboys have been extremely impressive for the rest of the year and have only had one hiccup. It was a bad hiccup in the midst of a horrible time for their university. That loss holds less weight for me than most others.

 

Think of it this way, would anyone feel cheated if we got to see LSU-Oklahoma State next month?

 

 

FDO

 

NBA Fan Opt Out

 

No, I don’t want to encourage anyone to abandon the NBA, whenever it returns. We should welcome it with open arms. We should not be so kind to the owners who have deprived us of games. As a response to this ultra public manifestation of corporate greed, basketball fans should opt of using NBA owners’ businesses. Again, not their playthings, our beloved NBA teams, but the businesses that provide these guys enough money they can feel comfortable simply choosing not to have a season.

 

If you have to choose between Quicken Loans (Cav owner Dan Gilbert’s company) and Speedy Pay, choose Speedy Pay.  It may be surprising to discover how much of a game these negotiations are for some owners for whom the money involved is miniscule. See Paul Allen.

 

The owners have already gained immense concessions from the players’ union, not because the players have done anything wrong, but because the owners made bad business decisions. Those concessions have still not been enough for them. The players ARE the product yet they are being forced to accept far less of the revenue THEY produce. The owners’ stance is profoundly anti-worker, anti-union and greedy.

 

The best way to express our disapproval is to use the voice owners are sure to hear; our wallets. This is not a fight between Billionaires and Millionaires. It’s a fight working people, some of whom are millionaires, and their bosses, all of whom are worth more than anyone most of us will ever even meet. Roger Mason Jr. signs the back of his check while Jim Dolan’s name is pre-printed on the front of it.

 

Whose side are you on?

 

FDO

 

PS- To be sure, NBA players have jobs many of us dream about. But the guys we typically think about are the rare exceptions even in that world. For every Tim Duncan and Paul Pierce who have long careers at top dollar, there are dozens of guys who have short careers with league minimum salaries. It’s clearly those folks who need to preserve their incomes; Dwight Howard and Dywane Wade are gonna get theirs. 

 

 

P Manning Up, Colts Down

How important is Peyton Manning to the Colts? Witness Visual Exhibit A. http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/rankings/trended/_/name/ind/indianapolis-colts

 

Some folks are suggesting that Peyton Manning should receive MVP votes because the Colts are so woeful without him. I don’t genuinely believe that especially in a year of outsized achievement by players throughout the NFL. I do think the season cements his legacy in a way nothing besides a 2^nd Super Bowl title could.

 

Manning's closest competitor for the title of 'best QB on Earth' has long been Tom Brady. Remember that in the season Brady missed, his Patriots were 11-5.  That group may well be the best ever team to miss the playoffs. While they certainly missed Tom Terrific, his absence was manageable. This season the Colts are healthier than they were last year when they went 10-6 and won the AFC South yet without Manning they are abysmal. 

 

This year is a clear indication of Peyton’s value. Speaking of which, if Carson Palmer can fetch first- and second-round draft picks, what’s Manning’s trade value? If you’re in charge of Dallas, Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, Baltimore or the Jets, aren’t you willing to trade your starting quarterback and your next two years of first- and second-round draft choices for a healthy Manning? Aren’t you?

 

FDO

 

 

Lead Us (to Ill Repute)

 

Today I saw a feature on ESPN’s College Football Live show called the Urban Meyer Leadership Series. I had just turned to ESPN so my initial response was to wait for the punchline… I mean, Urban Meyer? Really, Urban Meyer? This guy has clearly succeeded as a coach and just as clearly failed as a leader. His program has been riddled with arrests. How is it that this guy gets to be perceived as a credible source for leadership? This is part of the pattern of college coaching that saddens me.

 

Jim Tressel is finally forced to resign at Ohio State and Ohio high school coaches decide to honor him by planning to dress like Tressel in their first game.  What example does this set for the athletes and communities of Ohio? Since you won, it doesn’t matter that you lack basic integrity? What other message could there be?

 

Sadly, the situation is probably worse in men’s college basketball. Kelvin Sampson and Jim Calipari left town just ahead of the NCAA posse in multiple locations. Both these guys had programs with major violation stacked on major violation. Distressingly, they continue to fall up, instead of down. Calipari has one of the very best jobs in his profession and Sampson is now the lead assistant for the NBA’s Houston Rockets and is perceived as a likely NBA head coach starting next summer. No penance has to be paid if you get to bowl games or the Sweet Sixteen. Conference championships and rivalry dominance absolve a multitude of sins.

 

Fans of college athletics are so accustomed to this sad situation that today there’s very little outrage about the ways college coaches abuse the system, their universities and their players. Or even the taxpayers who fund their million dollar salaries. It seems that Al Davis bespoke the future of college sports decades ago. Davis’ magic phrase? “Just win, baby.”

 

 

FDO

 

World B. Free

 

Twenty-five years ago

I went with my dad

To an old stadium

Gone and dearly departed

If not regretfully

To see my Indiana Pacers who

I loved stridently

At home

In the new Curtis Mathes set that

How were we to know

Lasted far too long

 

 

But there in person

For the first time

Was a different kind of feeling

Since they were bad

And most of my focus

Started and stopped on a man named

World B. Free

Although I’m not sure how much of

This poem

Is true

I have no doubt

About World B. Free

 

 

It started with his hair

Though it was not exceptional

Except in its lack of exception

Stuck in a time

I may never understand

But all the rest fit too

How much he loved the game

Even when it was an awful game

And tried without ever looking

As if he were trying

 

 

Mostly though

The shooting

Like little orange only rainbows

Up and down

With no gold at the end

Only more orange

And then at its beginning

The look that might have been a smile

If he’d known no one was watching

 

 

At the end of the game

It seems that no one else noticed him

Because watching him play

Might have kept someone from skipping school

As it did me from stealing gum

Off the too short racks

Meant to taunt me

At the store

But lots of kids did that

And their parents drank too much

Cheated with a waitress

Then left home

(Not because of the children)

Even though they’d seen World B. Free

On the court downtown

 

When I asked later on

My dad said he used to be called Lloyd

That may well be

But he was always World B. to me

  

© Gayle Force Press 2002

 

2012 Timberwolves Draft Thoughts

 

The last three years have been a very hard time to be a fan of the Minnesota Timberwolves. They have a comically unsettled coaching situation, a mismatched roster of players, a laughingstock owner and the General Manager so incompetent that he inspired a Facebook group of people hoping to replace him with a sportswriter.

Still, today’s draft could become a great turning point for the Wolves.

 

Multiple rumors have suggested that the Phoenix Suns are incredibly eager to draft Derrick Williams, the standout collegian from the University of Arizona. Even if there were no formal offer to trade Steve Nash for the #2 pick (and Chad Ford believes that offer did happen) the deal on the table that would trade that pick for center Marcin Gortat and #13 seems a must-do for the Wolves.

 

The Wolves are still uncertain as to whether or not they want Derrick Williams to be their selection and the only conceivable reason for them to choose Enes Kanter or Jan Vesely instead of Williams is the desire to upgrade the center position. If that’s the goal, why not go for the proven commodity in Gortat? In the last 30 games or so of the season, Gortat was one of the top 10 centers in the league despite playing short minutes. His ability to score, rebound and defend would immediately improve the Wolves substantially.

 

The Wolves could also use their first round draft choices to make their roster more complete. As it stands, the Wolves only have 8 or 9 guys who are clearly NBA players. They desperately need more talent, more athleticism and more potential. Using these two picks to find the combination of a high scoring shooting guard and a talented young center prospect seem the way to go.

 

When you’re as low as the Wolves are, it’s imperative to take risks and force yourself into opportunities. This draft appears to be an example of opportunity knocking loudly. Come on, Wolves. Open the door.

 

FDO

 

Update: The Wolves chose Derrick Williams and were ultra-aggressive in trading their picks. They got a lot done but appear to still be moving along the margins instead of making moves toward immediate success. Perhaps they anticipate next year's draft being so strong that they can make a quantum leap after the draft/free agency periods of next summer. Perhaps.

Prisoners of the Moment

 

I am very happy for Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler and the Dallas Mavericks as a whole. All those players have improved their historical standing to some degree or another but the series MVP, Nowitzki, has been the subject of most conversation about an enhanced legacy. It began in the Western Conference playoffs when Mavs’ coach Rick Carlisle called Dirk one of the 10 best players in NBA history.

 

There was an immediate outcry about this as it seemed an absurd suggestion on its face. Now, after winning the NBA championship, lots of others are describing Dirk as a top 20 all-time player. ESPN/ABC broadcasters kept repeating that notion. So, being me, I decided to create my list of the top NBA players. This is just tiered, not 1-10 ordered.

 

Top 10

Russell

Chamberlain

Abdul-Jabbar

Johnson

Bird

Jordan

Olajuwon

Duncan

Robertson

Bryant

 

Top 20

West

Moses Malone

Mikan

O’Neal

Garnett

Baylor

Erving

Petitt

Thomas

Karl Malone

 

Okay, there’s my top 20. Who could be pulled out of this top 20 to make room for Nowitzki?

 

I’ve left off folks like Charles Barkley, Rick Barry, Bob Cousy, John Havlicek, Scottie Pippen, David Robinson and John Stockton. I’d be hard pressed to say Dirk’s better than any of those folks which puts him out of the top 25. All this top 20, much less top 10, talk about Dirk seems to be little more than a response to his recent, fantastic play. That’s not how players should be evaluated but it’s the easiest way to do it. Easy isn’t always better though.

 

FDO

  

 

 

Shaq’s influences on the NBA

 

Since Shaquille O'Neal announced his retirement, many people have already mentioned the Wilt Chamberlain-inspired quote from the Big Dipper's favorite coach, Alex Hannum, “Nobody loves Goliath.” Shaq was the first Goliath to be not only loved but eventually the most popular player in league. The notion that normal sized fans could never relate to physical titans was disabused by Shaq. His charisma, energy, humor and kindness is legendary. Even folks who didn’t like the NBA knew and liked something about Shaq.

  

Shaq also became the first ultra modern NBA player. It’s not surprising that he used social networking to break the news of his retirement. That’s who he is. In the 90s, Shaq was the guy who made multiple albums, had starring roles in multiple movies (including Kazaam which is not about basketball) and made commercials for everything under the sun.

 

Famously, Shaq also left the team that drafted him, the Orlando Magic, for the bright lights of LA. It’s Shaq who used free agency to re-set the balance of team vs. player control. His exhibition of his own power to choose his playing destiny was the start of the current trend of big time free agent movement being determined mostly by the players themselves. So yes, it’s Shaq we should thank or blame for leading indirectly to the Heat trio of stars hoping to win their own championship this season. More broadly, he helped change the landscape of the NBA by picking location over other considerations. Now, some cities are clearly more equal than others.

 

Shaq’s most important on court achievement is one that I have never seen noted before. Shaq was so physically dominant that he changed the positions of his most worthy adversaries. The tallest guys in basketball have avoided being labeled centers in response to Shaq. The level of Shaq avoidance is amazing.

       

Consider that the most prominent NBA centers when Shaq arrived in the league were Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing and David Robinson. These guys were all centers by both size and choice. Because of their size, it is perfectly natural to think of them as centers. They also chose that position when they had an option to be power forwards. All 3 were in Twin Tower situations but wanted to be centers.* Center is the position of greatest historical legacy in basketball.

 

Since Shaq’s arrival in the NBA, the generation of guys who should have been the next great centers chose not to be centers. Chris Webber, Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Jermaine O’Neal, Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge would have been centers at any other time but have simply decided not to be centers. Now it’s common that those 6’ 10” plus men aren’t thought of as centers at all now. Duncan is so adamant about being listed as a forward instead of a center that it’s often caused trouble for voters for All-Star and All-NBA teams. These guys went out of their way to avoid guarding Shaq and now many starting centers in the league have jobs simply because of their ability to provide a strong defensive presence. Now, that’s impact.

 

 

FDO

 

*-Olajuwon had Ralph Sampson, Ewing had Bill Cartwright and Robinson had Duncan. While Robinson was taller, Duncan’s strength, relative lack of speed and post game all meant he was a more natural center than Robinson. For instance, ESPN’s John Hollinger refuses to acknowledge Duncan as a forward.

 

First Thoughts on Heat-Mavs Part Deux

 

Yes, part 2 is how this series is being presented because it’s only been 5 years since the teams met in the Finals. There is a core of institutional memory of that series in both organizations that’s interesting. There has been consistent ownership and management and the two players remaining on each side fill important roles. Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki are the home grown superstar/best player in franchise history and Udonis Haslem and Jason Terry compose the emotional core of their teams. Otherwise, though, for both squads, there have been such substantial changes that neither team seems very connected to 2006. 

 

Almost the entire rosters have turned over for these teams. The Mavs are a collection of cast offs, former All-Stars and just past their prime guys who have all coalesced around the goal of winning a title. The Heat are, of course, the model for contemporary team building. Grab as many stars as possible and fill in the blanks around them.

 

It is that collection of star players, Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, that seems to be the key to this series to me. While Dallas’ players largely get the ball in scoring areas based on ball movement and double teams of Nowitzki, Miami has a more consistent offensive attack. Wade and James are almost always in scoring areas because with a move or two, each guy can get to a comfortable spot with an advantage. There were times in the Mavericks’ victory over the Thunder that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook seemed to be able to score at will. That scoring was predicated on speed and athleticism.  Wade and James have speed, athleticism, experience, confidence and great options when they need to pass the ball.

 

Some of Dallas’ offensive limitations have been masked by their incredibly accurate three point shooting during the playoffs. Miami expects to give up 3 pt attempts as long as they are contested. Miami will be able to slow down Dallas’ offense and force Nowitzki to win games by scoring 50 points a night. Dallas has very little chance of corralling James and Wade; that will be the difference.

 

Official Prediction: Heat in 6

Gut Feeling: Heat in 5 games. Yes, that means clinching the title in Big D. What a perfect scenario that would be for the most popular villains in NBA history.

 

FDO

 

 

RIP Macho Man

 

It's been a week since Randy 'Macho Man' Savage died. It took me a little while to gather some thoughts about him. These are them.

 

I’ve been a fan of professional wrestling since the late 1980s. Unlike most kids at that time who were able to choose between the National Wrestling Alliance (NWA) and World Wrestling Federation (WWF), I never preferred the WWF. My granddad was a big fan of boxing and my dad liked it pretty well so it feels natural to me that when I began exploring wrestling with some real passion, I gravitated to the more realistic of the Big Two.  That was clearly the NWA.  

 

For me, one of the important differences between the wrestling organizations was the World champion. In the WWF that was usually Hulk Hogan and in the NWA it was usually Ric Flair. While most kids were awed by the larger than life Hogan, I was awed by the pretty normal looking Flair. Hogan was billed at being 6’ 8” and 300+ lbs. To me that seemed absurd as did his in ring antics. He’d get beaten up by some monstrous looking guy then shake his head a lot and become invulnerable. Uh, yeah. He’d run through a couple moves, pin the guy and the parade started. (There was not really a parade but that’s what it felt like.)

 

On the other hand, Flair was incredibly vulnerable! In order to stay the champion, he sometimes needed to cheat, sometimes he needed help from someone else and sometimes he needed to get lucky. That seemed perfectly realistic since Flair was listed as 6’ 2” and around 240 lbs. Even though he was a big guy, Flair was never physically overwhelming and was often overmatched by bigger, stronger, faster guys. He used his brain as much as his body and that appealed to me greatly. Hogan’s successes seemed overly scripted and painfully predictable while Flair’s seemed uncertain and complicated. That Flair was just as successful as Hogan awed me.

 

Then in the late 80s, Randy Savage moved from being an up and comer to being one of the biggest stars in the wrestling universe. He was one of the smaller guys in the WWF but wrestled with the same kind of attitude, intensity and spirit as Hogan did. His ascendance was marked by a change in his wrestling style to fit into the Hogan mold and that’s ultimately why I never became a fan of his. The paint by numbers approach sold lots of tickets but left me cold. I thought I was kind of missing out on Savage but I wasn’t sure why.

 

The difference between his Wrestlemania matches in 1987 and 1989 is amazing. In 1987, wrestling against Ricky Steamboat, Savage utilized an amazing array of holds, flips, dives, counters and counters to counters. In 1989, wrestling against Hogan, Savage used lots of punches, power moves and presentation elements. The first is a revolutionary technical, artistic exhibition while the second is a triumph of style over substance. It is, of course, to Savage’s credit that he excelled at both styles. It’s interesting for me to recognize that I was never a fan of Savage’s particularly though I always recognized his ability. What I've realized in the past couple years is that he always seemed to have excellent matches with all the guys I really was a great fan of.

 

Savage had tremendous wrestling based feuds with guys like Tito Santana, Steamboat, Ted DiBiase, Flair and even Jake “The Snake” Roberts. In all these feuds, Savage made his opponents look great and kept up with them, move for move. I suppose the bottom line is that Randy Savage could always do everything he needed to in a wrestling ring. That strikes me as a pretty good definition of greatness.

 

 

FDO

 

 

Race Day

 

As a Circle City native, Memorial Day weekend always feels festive. I never participate but the Indy 500 permeates the environment in Indianapolis.

FDO

 

 

Race Day

 

Camper cities

Traffic for miles

Checkered flags wave

In all directions

Coolers full of Bud

Dirt cheap sunglasses

Tank tops

Jake the snake around

Brother Henry’s neck

Grilled brats and burgers

“Show us your tits!”

Naps on the infield

Day long engine drone

A rainbow of cotton candy

Tires over the fence

Some foreign guy wins

May is beautiful

In Indy

 

 

© Gayle Force Press 2004

 

 

LeBron Takes the Conn

 

For those who had doubts about the hierarchy of NBA players, LeBron James quieted them in the series against the Bulls. In some ways, this series reminded me of the legendary 1995 Western Conference series when the Houston Rockets led by Hakeem Olajuwon faced the San Antonio Spurs captained by David Robinson. Robinson won the 1995 MVP award and ‘The Admiral’ played magnificently that year. There were moments in that season when he seemed as though might entirely change the paradigm of the center position. The year before, Hakeem ‘The Dream’ won the MVP and his Rockets won the title. The Dream was perceived to be at the top of his game and soon to decline as he’d already been in the league for a decade. The 1995 season was the one in which the public mantle of best post-Jordan player was firmly shifted from Olajuwon to Robinson. Until the playoffs.

 

The Rockets limped into the playoffs as a 6 seed but ultimately won the title in perhaps the most unlikely situation of any NBA champion. In the defining series, Olajuwon utterly destroyed Robinson, particularly after watching the MVP ceremony. This double Dream Shake move is routinely used to illustrate how badly one guy can embarrass another.

 

There’s no similarly iconic moment of James dominating Rose, in part because the two didn’t guard each other. Well, that’s halfway true. In multiple fourth quarters in this series, James did guard Rose. It was an unqualified success. Rose has an amazing skill set blending speed, hops, ball skills, quickness, savvy, floaters, balance, great understanding of angles and astonishing strength. None of it mattered. James guarded Rose better than the unquestioned best defensive point guard, Rajon Rondo, has been able to do in Bulls-Celtics playoff matchups. LeBron used own amazing gifts to frustrate, intimidate and dominate Rose.

 

Much like Olajuwon, James said all the right things about losing the MVP trophy and has been very gracious in the midst of the conversation in some quarters anointing someone else (Derrick Rose) the best player in the game. Then, he went out and made that speculation laughable. It is abundantly clear that LeBron James is still King James. To suggest otherwise seems absurd. He’s taken back the conn* and he’s taken back his crown. Now, he has to do the hardest thing of all (just ask Dirk). Take the ring.

 

FDO

 

*-I really like the movie Crimson Tide. The battle of wills involved feels epic. Epic and easily applicable to sports.

 

Basketball Hall of Fame (kinda)

 

 

The Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame needs to consistently expand and develop an NBA focus or be augmented by a separate NBA sponsored Professional Basketball Hall of Fame.

  

I have generally felt this way for several years but the elections this year cement that position for me. 2005, 2007 and now 2011 have all been awful. (Mercifully, 2009 was so obvious it couldn’t be screwed up with Jordan, Robinson and Stockton all getting in.) Part of the problem seems to be the attempt to use HoF voting as a method for separating the immortals of the game from the merely worthy. Baseball thinks having an ultra-exclusive Hall translates to more majesty for it. For that sports HoF to be a staid, limiting, judgmental institution is somewhat appropriate for a game that illustrates those same qualities to an unhelpful degree.

 

 

But basketball is dramatically different. Basketball is about art, passion, creativity, expanding, redefining and breaking limits while erasing barriers. Lots of people do basketball in incredibly different ways; that’s part of why basketball has become the American sport that clearly translates best to the rest of the world. Steve Nash and Dwyane Wade can dominate a game just as surely as Yao Ming and Dwight Howard do. The variety of skills and talents that can lead to success in basketball should be mirrored in its HoF.

 

 

There is a clear hierarchy in the world of basketball and the NBA is unquestionably at the top. The best players, coaches and executives in the world aim for the League. Consider that Duke University coach Mike Krzyzewski is consistently asked if he will leave his top level college job for an NBA job. I have never heard anyone suggest that Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson might leave his top level NBA job for a college job. Never. Former NBA All-Stars Stephon Marbury and Allen Iverson have recently played outside the US and everyone feels sorry for them because they have fallen so far. Meanwhile, players like Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobili continue to leave their countries to play in the NBA because they want the chance to play with the best in the world. I don’t believe the HoF should eliminate the number of contributors, coaches, women and international players. What it should do is recognize the hierarchy everyone else does and give more credit to the players at the highest level. That seems natural and fair.

 

 

Lots of individuals would benefit from this expansion but current and future fans will benefit more. There will be more people to celebrate, more accomplishments to note and more exceptions to the rules. Isn’t that what we want from sports? And what we often get from basketball?

 

 

This year’s elections of Artis Gilmore and Dennis Rodman fix two glaring oversights but there are probably a dozen other players that should be in the Hall but aren’t. Every time I start making a list it saddens me. Maybe I’ll do that later.

  

 

FDO

 

Bad MVP voting. Again.

 

Wow. I feel good and bad about sharing this publicly. I wrote this post Monday and Tuesday then read the Hollinger article here Thursday evening at halftime of the Spurs-Celtics game. (It’s ESPN Insider only, sorry.) I’ve been trying to write more frequently so I will have enough to post between 3 and 5 times a week. That often means writing something then holding it for a few days. Unfortunately, what I wrote now pales in comparison to what the professional ESPN writer shared AND covers some of the same ground. Such is life. Enjoy anyway! And hey, mine is shorter!

 

Derrick Rose is being anointed the MVP of the NBA and it’s a bit amusing because it’s clear Rose is not the best player in the league. There’s a very good chance he won’t even make first team All-NBA this year. With around ten games left, I’d have Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade at guard.

 

There seems to be a widespread media narrative indicating the D Rose should be the MVP and nothing has changed that narrative since the All-Star Break. Particularly considering how much statistical analysis is impacting the NBA, I have a strong feeling that in a couple years, the D Rose MVP will feel like the Steve Nash back to back MVPs of the last decade. Everyone will wonder what mass psychosis led to that decision making. We’re seeing lots of parallels between the two situations I think. Unexpected team success, a player’s rapid jump from the fringe All-Star to All-NBA levels and no signature performance from a competitor. (The Iverson MVP and Kidd runner-up seasons follow similar patterns.)

 

Rose has been a superb player for the Bulls this year and, seemingly, everything has worked out well for the Bulls. They are clearly ahead of schedule and have their own Big 3 with Rose, Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer, all of whom complement each other well and for whom there is a defined pecking order. The Bulls are the anti-Heat in some important respects. This all helps Rose’s candidacy, as does the substantial failings of the post-Jordan Bulls franchise.  Everyone wants Chicago to be a title contender again.

 

Overall, Rose has clearly been the best story in the NBA this year. Does that mean he’s been the best player or the most important? Well, if I were Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki or Kobe Bryant, I might not feel that way.

 

My guess is that in 2014, most folks won’t feel that way either.

 

FDO

 

Half Man, Half Missing

 

I watched the Suns-Thunder game Wednesday night and was awestruck to watch Vince Carter playing like it was 2003. He was fantastic! He made offensive play after offensive play and was in such a groove that everyone in the building seemed to be waiting for him to do something special. It’s interesting to me that I initially typed ‘be’ instead of ‘do’. Most NBA fans have always expected him to ‘be’ legendary instead of just ‘doing’ some legendary things.

 

Carter made strength moves, speed moves, balance moves, lefty drives, baseline drives, fading jumpers and one spin move into a dunk that fewer than ten other guys in the league could pull off. It was a tantalizing reminder of how great Carter could have been. He’s one of the most physically gifted players I’ve ever seen and has always had phenomenal basketball skills. Carter really should have been the Chrissie to Kobe Bryant’s Martina.

 

But where talented athletes like Martina, Chrissie and Kobe were all obsessed with their sporting success, Vince has always seemed content to stay on the periphery of greatness. He has never been willing to push himself to develop new skills or average 10 free throws a game or dominate defensively. Usually, folks ask ‘what if’ about guys like Grant Hill, or even Vince’s cousin, Tracy McGrady who saw their careers limited by physical injuries to ankles, knees or feet. Folks will always ask ‘what if’ about Vince too. But not about his ankles, about his heart.

 

 

FDO

 

Super Bowl Blogging-4th Quarter

Super Bowl Blogging-4^th  Quarter

 

Damn.

First play and Mendenhall coughs it up. I’m wondering if that’ll be the play of the game. So surreal.

 

The crowd seems hyped but the Packers don’t. That would be disconcerting if I were a Packer fan.

 

What’s up with Jordy Nelson? All my images of sure handed, slow footed, White possession receivers are being distorted.

Especially now that he races across the field like a gazelle. Who are you, Jordy Nelson?

 

Why does AROD keep hopping? He’s done it on 5 or 6 occasions since the 2^nd quarter. It looked stupid when Pete Sampras did it but he at least made winning plays out of it.

 

Yep, Mendenhall fumbles and 3 minutes later the Pack has a nice lead and has finally re-captured the momentum.

 

It’s great that in the Super Bowl, there are so many video cameras that people holding television cameras are often on camera.

 

Activity Dogs have to be gone from commercials too.

 

Painfully tacky, adult oriented commercials co-exist seamlessly with movie ads designed for 4 year olds. Is anyone even trying?

 

Flozell. Is mother Flo(rence) and father Zell? Is father Flo(yd) and mother Zel(da)?  I really wanna know.

 

GB 28- PIT 17. This seems like the perfect time for a Big Ben comeback for the ages and Hall of Fame immortality.

SHIT! I wasn't expecting Green Bay to stop playing defense.

 

I suppose if Ben wins another title this year, he’ll at least have to spend lots of time and energy answering uncomfortable questions. So, there’s that…

 

WOW. 3 points down after that awesome 2 point conversion.

 

HA! Pretending that Go Daddy has limits (that the FCC) hasn’t established I mean.

 

Waaay too many people eat during the Super Bowl for VW to have done a Beetle ad with real beetles. The Idiot Wind is blowing.

 

If the Packers get any more nervous they’ll have to carry security blankets.

 

Down the field aggression works for Green Bay! Well, when they catch the ball at least.

 

The Steelers really could have benefitted from having additional timeouts.

 

31-25, just over 2 minutes left, trailing time receiving a kickoff. Wouldn’t most of us have been happy if we knew this would be the situation for this year’s Super Bowl?

 

Another personal foul? In the Super Bowl? Almost comical. Of course, I don’t have any money riding on the outcome so…

 

Hasn’t Kim Kardashian moved from football to basketball?

 

Lots of time being spent on meager gains by the Steelers. I don’t understand. 50 seconds and 20 yards?

 

Pre-route contact? Nah. Not in the Super Bowl.

 

Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Now, I can only hope for next years Colts-Vikings grudge match.

 

What a fun game this was.

 

Let’s hope Rashard Mendenhall gets treated well. He’s gonna need it.

 

Super Bowl Blogging-3rd Quarter

 

Super Bowl Blogging-3rd Quarter

 

 

Wow, James Jones dropped a sure fire long gainer and potential touchdown. Instead, Green Bay punts. Ouch.

 

Immediately followed up by a dubious 15 yard penalty. Double ouch.

 

Chimps and babies. Is it just me or shouldn’t those commercials have gone out with the Clinton Administration?

 

Man, momentum is huge! GB was so close to a 28-10 lead. Seemingly, 5 minutes after the drop, it’s 21-17. DAMN!

 

Nelson dropped another pass he could have caught. Uh oh, are the Packers feeling nervous? With the lead? Not a good sign for them.

 

All the momentum is on the Steelers side of the ball.

 

Timothy Hutton didn’t really do that Groupon commercial did he? How much crack must he be smoking?!? What a bitch!

 

Watching this game reminds me both a) why so many folks think  Big Ben is a great QB and b) why they’re wrong.

 

Charlotte Jones Anderson?!? Who the fuck is Charlotte Jones Anderson?!?

 

Massive, absurd overthrow by Ben. See 2 lines previous.

 

Clay Matthews almost made an insanely great play (instead of just an excellent one). And they say White men can’t jump…

 

4^th and 15 from the Packer 34. A FG brings you within 1 point. I gotta go for the yardage. Send a message: We’re gonna win!

 

ISH. Horrible kick.

 

What does this city [Detroit] know about luxury?

They’ve been to Hell and back? To Hell, okay? Back? Not so much.

When your lead ambassador is Eminem, you've got lotsa work to do.

 

AROD running around a bit, throwing downfield, the Pack being aggressive. This is how you got to the Super Bowl!

 

All these injured guys are making visual indications of physical distress. No Cutlers here!

 

56 yd FGA is easily in range says Joe Buck. What a tool.

 

Uh, throwing a judo chop at someone’s helmet is stupid on many levels. Tramon Williams, this means you.

 

Green Bay seems entirely discombobulated. Almost frightened. Don’t be scared. Be happy.

 

Bad challenge, Mike McCarthy. Especially when you’ve already used two timeouts. Ish.

 

My bad, The Steelers have blown two timeouts, not the Pack. That helps.

 

How many times will we hear the word ‘correction’ tonight? I need to retain this for next year’s potential drinking games…

 

I’m thinking Janet Jackson for next year’s Super Bowl. MJ’s dead and there’ll be lots of interests because of NippleGate. Hmmm.

 

 

 

Super Bowl Blogging-2nd Quarter

 

Super Bowl Blogging-2^nd Quarter

 

Sounds like the production team spent the whole time between commercials trying to make Joe Buck sound less ridiculous. Fail.

 

Sanders went behind the first down marker on his own. He shouldn’t have been awarded that first down.

 

Didn’t Shaun Suisham used to play for the Cowboys? How nice this must feel for him to play in JerryLand while the Cowboys have been out of contention for 3 months?

 

Elton John can’t be this desperate for money…

 

I saw John Travolta but thought it was Rod Blagoevich. Sad but true.

 

Wait a sec, is BMW being advertised as a pro-America company?

 

Coke, THOR and VW with sci-fi themed commercials consecutively.

 

Big Ben headlines are mentioned but unmentioned a) this was not the first allegation of sexual assault and b) the DA in the Georgia case was convinced Ben was guilty but the accuser was apparently so drunk she couldn’t be a strong witness. If that’s the only 15 seconds they spend on this, I’ll be disappointed.

 

Again, there’s conversation about Ben’s lack of mobility just before he takes off running. Hello guys, it’s not disabling him now so don’t force your square storyline into that round hole.

 

A chimp commercial. Really, in 2011? Who is Career Builder’s lead marketer, Homer Simpson?

 

2 INTs for Big Ben

Legacy is slipping away quickly.

 

Green Bay 21, Pittsburgh 3. Jake is Super excited.

 

Troy Aikman makes a great point about the Pack’s 3^rd touchdown of the half. I was starting to wonder why he was in the booth.

 

Advertising FB access as a selling point for a car frightens me.

 

It feels odd to me that Marvel has flown so far ahead of DC in terms of its movies. DC has, arguably, the three most iconic comic heroes in Superman, Batman and Wonder Woman. So, what happened?

 

Watching injured players walk down long hallways toward medical care makes me wonder why there aren’t golf carts at the ready.

 

Green Bay secondary injuries may combine with Steelers desperation to provoke a massive second half shootout. Hmm, that could be good.

 

Actually, it looks like the injured guys are walking through a sports bar toward medical care. That’s much better.

 

The last Steelers drive was really impressive. Ben and Hines Ward have clearly played together for a long time. It’s odd seeing the high speed, frazzled looking offense playing against the Packers because Brett Favre was a master of that style.

 

This has not been the kind of first half I expected, largely due to Pittsburgh sloppiness, but it’s been lots of fun!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super Bowl Blogging-1st Quarter

Super Bowl Blogging-1^st Quarter

 

Why defer possession? Is that about gamesmanship or attempting to stave off nervousness?

 

Ah, momentum swings quickly.  The Steelers fans got so excited at the muffed punt then 2 minutes later, the Pack is at midfield and feeling great.

 

I don’t really care that much about Aaron Rodgers’ family history and how hard it was to be a late first round draft pick. Such tales of misery should wait for the second half.

 

I can already imagine the squawking from Packers fans about the near miss catch by Nelson on the first drive, followed by the near miss at pinning the Steelers near the goal line. So close, yet so far away…

 

The best advertising minds in the country came up with this tripe? I am glad to see that Kenny G still looks like, uh, Kenny G…

 

How many different ways will announcers obliquely refer to Ben Roethlisberger’s ‘troubles’ or ‘year’ or ‘difficulties’? I hope folks are using this as a drinking game…

 

Dwayne Johnson and Vin Diesel in the same movie? Wow, what a great chance to see the baddest ambiguously ethnic action stars in the same movie!

 

A Rod and Cameron Diaz? Are they the least Latin Latino stars in the US? Hey, I’m just asking? (Even the Anthem Killer did a Spanish language album a few years ago.)

 

If Aaron Rodgers is wearing a different helmet because he’s been concussed a couple times, shouldn’t everyone wear that different (presumably better) helmet?

 

Great pass to Nelson. It would have been hard for Nelson to drop that one.

 

When will people start calling Aaron Rodgers ‘A-Rod’? Andy Roddick was never gonna get it but perhaps…

I love that play callers get lots of credit in the NFL. On the touchdown play, the receiver WAS NOT OPEN! The play worked because AROD (see, no hyphen) threw a PERFECT pass. Not because of any schematic genius.

 

Cowboys vs. Aliens followed by Roman Gods vs. Indians? WTF? (No, not ‘win the future’.)

 

So, has Big Ben been 'unredeemed' now?

 

15 yard celebration penalty. Nope, you’re not allowed to celebrate the biggest play of your life in the No Fun League.

 

Boz Scaggs? Who knew?

 

Wow, Eminem sells tea? Wait a sec, did I write that? Yep. Eminem sells tea. Isn’t that the 4^th sign of the Apocalypse?

 

Emmanuel Sanders? What a fun name.

 

It’s still hard for me to hear the words “good protection” associated with Big Ben.

 

Within 10 seconds, Joe Buck says something about Big Ben like…

~ ’He looks like he can hardly move.

Now, he can move!’

C’mon Joe Buck, you’re better than that!

  

 

 

 

Super Bowl Blogging 2011- Part 1

Pre-Game

 

I didn't hate Christina Aguilera until tonight. Now, I never want to hear her again. She butchered the Star Spangled Banner in a phenomenally painful way. Marvin Gaye made the anthem soar, swoon and shine during the NBA All-Star game in LA (I think in 1983). It made me want to hear the song over and over. This performance makes me want to hit X-tina. Hard.

 

So far, this pre-game (only since 6) has been atrocious. The Walter Payton Award was great but super quick. The rest has sucked. I also couldn't help thinking: "I wonder how many years it will be before Big Ben wins this award?"

 

Is Michael Douglas dying? Did I get that right? <sigh> Sad, I know.

 

Deion Sanders' tie looks like a candy cane. He's probably still fast enough to have run 20 yards while the coin was in the air.

 

Rachel doesn't like football but she thinks it's absurd that the networks force players and coaches to chat just before kickoff. She's right.

 

 

 

Bears+ Vikings+ Frozen Field= Trouble

 

I’m very interested in watching the Bears-Vikings game tonight outside in Minneapolis. I’m a fan of the Vikes and there’s a rivalry involved but more interestingly, the field is frozen and reportedly concrete hard. This game is happening outdoors at the same time that the NFL is trumpeting its efforts to maintain player safety. What an odd contradiction.

 

The Vikings have lots of reasons for wanting this game to happen in Minnesota (Favre’s last home game, ticket sales, 50^th anniversary events…) but this is another illustration of short term desires overriding common sense. I want to know what happens if someone gets badly hurt. How much will this game ultimately cost the league?

 

 

FDO

 

Science Over Sight

 

Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young award yesterday in what is being touted as a harbinger of a new age of baseball. In this new age, statistical complexity trumps conventional wisdom, and in some ways, the ability to believe what we see. One of the many charms of baseball is the ability to create much of individual games through the standard box score. At bats, runs, hits, RBI. Many baseball fans can get 95% of a game’s flow correct from those four stats in a box score. Any game! We can also determine the success level of players based on those box scores. For some, box scores have been an obsession because they indicate so much about baseball. (Tim Kurkjian writes about this beautifully.)

 

What sabermetric statistical analysis has done is to de-value what we see in our box scores. Those cherished box scores are only a portion of what indicates a player’s success. Discovering that the baseball writers who vote on Cy Young and other awards are willing to look beyond the box scores and the conventional measures of success really does seem to be an indication of how thoroughly this sabermetric revolution has taken hold.

 

There are two near certain next steps. One, virtually all baseball television coverage will soon show stat lines that shift during an at-bat. We’ll still see Batting Average, Runs Batted In and Home Runs. Then the scroll will shift to include On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and On-Base + Slugging Percentage. Then the scroll will shift again to include RC27 (Runs Created per 27 Innings), SECA (Secondary Average), ISOP (Isolated Power) and TB (Total Bases). By 2020, every kid discovering baseball will know those terms as naturally as I do ERA. And when that happens, the second next step will occur. Every computer will have ‘sabermetric’ in its spellcheck.

 

 

FDO

 

Falling Down the Memory Hole

 

In another saddening but unsurprising addition to the large and steadily growing library of football head trauma victims add Jim McMahon. The Super Bowl champion quarterback for the Chicago Bears describes the horrifying memory loss he suffers now. AT AGE 51!

 

It’s amazing that so many of the current generation of players are still resisting efforts to make the game safer. Especially when they see some of their own football heroes, like McMahon, experiencing a clearly declining quality of life.

 

 

FDO

 

The Minnesota Vikings- The Ewing Theory 2012 Super Bowl Champions!

 

As a Vikings fan, I am desperately holding onto hope for this season (Rodgers is the next Packer to hit the IR, the Bears play like they are who we think they are and the Lions, well, never mind.) but if none of that works out, here’s a new possibility for us. The Ewing Theory! In a nutshell, this idea says that many teams dramatically exceed expectations in the season after their signature star leaves the team. Examples abound.

 

The Vikings will be a perfect candidate after Brett Favre, their Hall of Fame bound quarterback, fails in his quest to bring the Vikes that elusive Super Bowl win (and move up the list of all-time greats). He's "Ewing".

 

Brad Childress will be fired and Leslie Frazier will be his replacement, giving the team a renewed emphasis on defense. Tarvaris Jackson is not the incompetent many of his detractors claim and combined with Adrian Peterson and a healthy receiving corps, the Vikings will be at least average offensively. In the weakened NFC, the combination of a solid offense, aggressive defense, awesome home field advantage and a giant chip on their collective shoulders may be enough to make a deep playoff run.

 

(If Childress is fired this year, there’s some modified Ewing Theory hope for this season. Randy Moss would be the Ewing in that scenario.)

 

Now, if only there were some hope for the Timberwolves…

 

 

FDO

 

 

Dusty Baker, Tony LaRussa and Red Ruffians, or, Major League Blunders!

Why Baker and LaRussa should not see each other again this season.

I have a few thoughts about the Cardinals-Reds brawl from their last series. You may remember Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips made numerous provocative comments about the Cardinals then when he came to the plate, Yadier Molina chastised him, benches cleared, bodies flew and hell was raised. At least two pitchers were tossed against the fence in a scary scene. One of them, Johnny Cueto, received a seven game suspension because of kicking at the Cardinals surrounding him. Jason LaRue suffered a mild concussion as a result. I firmly believe that Cueto’s lengthy suspension was based on the injury that his actions caused, not the actions themselves. Random kicking into an onrushing crowd is much less dangerous than throwing a fastball at a batter’s head. Cueto was obviously frightened and, as a pitcher, smartly avoided throwing punches. As we’ve seen too many times, a single arm injury can cost a pitcher his career, millions of dollars and his team a championship.

More importantly, MLB should institute a blanket rule covering fighting the way the NBA has done. In the NBA, if you are on the bench and cross onto the playing floor you are automatically suspended. (I think there should be a little gray area there because basketball benches are so close to the court that players on the sidelines are often less than a step away from the court so crossing over sometimes happens during actual play, much less during a melee.) In baseball, the idea might be to simply punish anyone who comes onto the field or, if already on the field, leaves their legitimate area of engagement. That covers guys playing defense, warming up on the sidelines, the on-deck hitter, the base coaches, everybody. As usually happens in these fights, Phillips and Molina were yelling at each other but not fighting. It was only when 50 other guys crowded the area that things became physical. (Reason #37 professional sports are like junior high school.) Removing the additional people from the scene means that umpires and security personnel can tamp down confrontations quickly, easily and safely. Ideally, managers would be exempt from this rule and allowed to bring their players back to earth from Planet Testosterone.

That notion took a beating in the Phillips-Molina encounter because Tony LaRussa and Dusty Baker failed in their primary responsibility as managers during a fight. They did not serve as peacemakers protecting the game and their players, instead they escalated the confrontation. For them, two games was not a severe enough penalty. I think MLB missed a perfect opportunity to declare that fighting is a dangerous problem for baseball by dropping the hammer on these managers. Baker and LaRussa should have been suspended for the rest of the season series between these teams. I mean, full blown suspended too, as in, can’t enter the stadium during these series. These are old school guys who behave in old school ways that simply don’t make sense in 2010. These great managers behaved in ways that encouraged their players to fight. That is entirely unacceptable. What I am suggesting is the kind of draconian penalty that would make it clear to managers that fighting will no longer be tolerated. Too harsh? Perhaps. That’s kinda the point.

FDO

HIV and Gay Marriage Rights

Last week someone showed me the first poll to indicate a narrow majority of Americans support gay marriage.  For the past few months, I have been talking and thinking a lot about our perceptions of HIV/AIDS. I teach US History and cover the 1980s including HIV, gay liberation efforts and the Reagan administration's reluctance to discuss AIDS or fund research efforts. In class, I read an excerpt from ‘And the Band Played On’ and the kids consistently flip out because they (incorrectly) assume their government would have been highly interested in, y'know, trying to stop a dread, communicable disease. It is always heartening to me that these young people almost uniformly reject anti-gay policies and prejudices, even retroactively. They are the ones who will consistently support laws, initiatives and politicians who advocate marriage rights for everyone.

 

In discerning the base level meaning of marriage, I think it is clear that for many people, the institution of marriage provides license for two people to have sex. This poll reveals significant change in attitudes concerning gay marriage and I am wondering if part of the reason more straight people are willing to support the public sanction of gay sex via marriage has occurred because our collective fear of gay sex has diminished tremendously since the gay people profiled in ‘And the Band…’ were just about the only people who knew anything at all about AIDS.

 

When Magic Johnson announced he was HIV+, I thought there was a good chance that my generation (I was 17, in college and LOTS of us were sexually active) had a new JFK moment. I was totally wrong though (it's still Challenger). Instead, Magic is so healthy, active, rich and visible that I know some people have (temporarily?) forgotten he has HIV. That's a little scary actually. AIDS is now the leading killer of Black women between 25 and 34. The most horrifying elements of that statistic, for me, is that these women have still not been educated enough to know that they are a) susceptible to HIV, b) perfectly capable of preventing their infection in almost every case and c) consistently late to receiving diagnosis and attendant care.

 

Our increasingly cavalier attitude towards HIV is another reminder that we have an amazing level of privilege in the U.S. In so many countries, HIV almost always becomes AIDS and almost always equals a death sentence. Now, early detecting Americans are likely to stay healthy for a very long time. Some of them, like Magic, will always carry HIV but never develop AIDS. The transition in our country from a) AIDS=Death to b) HIV= chronic, massive health concern gives me increased hope that some of the fears our society has long harbored about gay sexuality will continue to fade. The likely repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell is another step in that direction. (Baby steps to full equality, baby steps to full equality.)

 

While judicial decisions are critical stepping stones, it is ultimately the support of the American people that generates the permanent force of change. That change is occurring. Most people I suggest this to think I’m crazy but I believe that gay marriage will be legal in half the states by 2020. That's my hope and my prediction. We're on the way, people. Slowly but surely. We're on the way.

 

 

FDO

 

US Open Men’s Tournament Preview 2010

 

 

This is the first time in many years that at least 5 men should enter a Grand Slam tournament feeling as though they have at least a 10% chance of winning. For Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Robin Soderling, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick and Andy Murray, this US Open has to be seen as a realistic opportunity to provide a breakthrough in some way.

 

For Federer, winning this title would not only ‘stop the bleeding’ but it would dim the calls that he’s on the path of clear decline. Last year, his loss to Martin Del Potro was seen as shocking, but this year, his aura of invincibility has all but vanished. Winning in New York would push him back to being the clear #2 in the world (the silly ATP rankings system be damned) and would give him another year of multiple Grand Slam victories. Not only would that pad his lead, it would also keep Nadal from gaining ground in that all important category.

 

For Nadal, this tournament could push him into rarified air. Winning the lifetime Grand Slam is significant and would allow him another feather in his history cap. 3 Grand Slams in a year would also propel him radically out of the pack and into a unique position at the top of his sport. Nadal stands to prove that his game truly does work on hard courts and US Open success could mean that Nadal would also be primed to win in Australia next January with a chance to win the “Spanish Slam”.

 

Soderling needs this win. He needs to get past the competitor stage and move into the champion stage. He has the game for it and the personality to take it. Instead of being one of the guys, Soderling could become The Next Big Thing in tennis, instantly surpassing Djokovic and Murray in that conversation. (Del Po could have been that guy but his wrist injury has made that impossible.)

 

Djokovic risks becoming a tennis afterthought. Even though he’s #3 in the world, and has been as high as #2, no one feels that he’s likely to become the best player in tennis. (To most fans, even Djokovic’s arrival at #2 was less about his climb as much as it was about Fed’s descent.) Winning in Australia in 2008 should have catapulted him into tennis’ royal box but it didn’t happen and now he’s in jeopardy of being a one hit wonder. He still has a chance to become Jim Courier instead of Michael Stich but has to take advantage of this kind of opportunity.

 

Roddick may need this championship more than any of the other top contenders because his window seems nearest closing. His only Grand Slam victory came here in 2003 and, although he’s had excellent results since then, he’s likely to be viewed as an underachiever when his career ends. Although winning again in New York would be the least beneficial major for him to win, he desperately needs another Grand Slam title under his belt.

 

Andy Murray is best suited to win on hard courts but in his two Grand Slam finals, Federer beat him thoroughly. If Murray truly believes he can eventually win Wimbledon, he would be well served to have notched a major championship elsewhere first. The openness of this year’s field may yield the best opportunity he will have to achieve his ultimate goal.

 

With the rough equality of so many top contenders, I believe the US Open may prove a tremendous fortnight for tennis fans across the globe.  Especially since the clear #1 woman, Serena Williams, is out of this year’s tournament, the excitement of the men’s tournament is likely to provide the key to a successful end to the 2010 major season. I am looking forward to the many great matches I expect over the next two weeks.

 

 

FDO

 

 

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP? Part 2.1

Late Update: Howard is now on the DL. Extra legitimacy to this post I believe.

An unfortunate addendum is that Votto’s NL MVP candidacy was indirectly strengthened this weekend. Ryan Howard, one of the slugging first basemen with legitimate MVP aspirations hurt his ankle and may miss some games. Howard was struggling a bit anyway and an ankle injury will make it even harder for him to excel down the stretch.

 

Even without injury, Howard would almost certainly have finished behind Votto in the key batting categories but the Phillies’ trade deadline moves seem to have put them in a great position to make the playoffs which would have raised Howard’s already outsized profile. Howard also has the credibility of being Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series champion. While some would shake their heads at a Votto MVP (as happened with Justin Morneau a couple seasons back), Howard and Albert Pujols would be safe choices this year. Votto may soon become the best choice.

 

FDO

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP? Part 2

 

An unfortunate addendum is that Votto’s NL MVP candidacy was indirectly strengthened this weekend. Ryan Howard, one of the slugging first basemen with legitimate MVP aspirations hurt his ankle and may miss some games. Howard was struggling a bit anyway and an ankle injury will make it even harder for him to excel down the stretch.

 

Even without injury, Howard would almost certainly have finished behind Votto in the key batting categories but the Phillies’ trade deadline moves seem to have put them in a great position to make the playoffs which would have raised Howard’s already outsized profile. Howard also has the credibility of being Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series champion. While some would shake their heads at a Votto MVP (as happened with Justin Morneau a couple seasons back), Howard and Albert Pujols would be safe choices this year. Votto may soon become the best choice.

 

FDO

 

Amaré the Jew

 

I am very excited to read that Amaré Stoudemire is making efforts to connect to what he perceives as his Jewish roots. Honestly, I assume that this is part of a Black American religious subculture that attempts to connect with ancient Israel as an offshoot of the metaphorical relationship between Blacks during slavery and Jews in Egyptian bondage from the Hebrew Bible.  

 

Whether Stoudemire has a religious, ethnical, cultural or familial root in Judaism doesn’t matter to me. What matters to me is that he is willing to explore himself and the world. In a time when many of us try desperately to follow the footprints on the floor, watching a pampered young millionaire (with a very troubled background) work to expand himself this way brings a smile to my face.

 

FDO

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP?

I know that he was the last guy added to the National League All-Star team and I know the Cincinnati Reds are ahead of schedule but I've started wondering: Does the combination of team and player performance mean that Joey Votto should be the MVP of the league this year?

 

At the moment, Votto is first in the league in batting, home runs, tied for (a distant) third in RBI and has substantial leads in OPS and each of the component elements. Even though the Reds are technically out of the playoffs, by percentage, they are fundamentally tied with St. Louis for first place in the NL Central. Most casual baseball fans know Joey Votto primarily for the anxiety issues that put him on the DL for emotional distress last year. He’s put that sadness behind him and has made himself into one of the 10 best players in his sport. And right now, Votto has great individual stats for a team in the pennant race. It’s way too early for this to be definitive but so far, Votto sounds like the MVP to me.  

FDO

I Like the SuperFriends

Lots of folks are giving grief to LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade for making free agent moves to team up in Miami. The suggestions have primarily included the notion that winning with lots of talent is somehow illegitimate and the championships that the SuperFriends might win together for the Miami Heat would be tarnished.

What?!? Winning is the bottom line in sports. Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods were recently ranked as America’s favorite athletes. Why?  Because they are viewed as champions and this country loves a winner more than anything else. Between Eagle, Colorado and Thanksgiving at the fire hydrant, Kobe and Tiger could have been sports pariahs but instead they’re our favorite athletes. Success leads to popularity when it comes to sports. As much as the SuperFriends are being beaten up now, I feel confident that if they win 2 of the next 3 NBA titles, all 3 of those guys will be among the top jersey sellers and commercial endorsers in the entire league.

 From a basketball standpoint, I love these moves. All 3 of these guys were the dominant stars on their teams and that’s a rare and enviable position. To willingly forego that status along with the money and control that accompany it is impressive. For young men in their 20s to choose a communal path to success over an individualistic one, especially in the hypermasculine world of professional sports, is refreshing and should be applauded. I hope this shared vision will help create a new paradigm in sports, one that’s less about the Alpha Dog and more about the winning team.

 

FDO

 

 

 

 

Indiana Pacers Draft Strategy

Chad Ford (via Mike Wells) on the Indiana Pacers draft strategy:

The Pacers are willing to give up their pick - No. 10 - in next week's draft to get a player that will help them immediately.

The Pacers wouldn't be searching for a point guard if they had taken [Ty] Lawson instead of Tyler Hansbrough last year. Lawson, who was the Pacers' second option, averaged 8.3 points and 3.1 assists last season.

Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, Darren Collison and Eric Maynor were all still available when the Pacers picked at No. 13.

That’s what I’ve been saying! There are two conventional methods for making draft choices in the NBA. One is 'Talent'. Identifying the best available player and choosing that guy regardless of external circumstances. The second is 'Need'. This means determining what your team needs in order to fill a gap or serve a particular purpose.

Last year, the Pacers were in position to choose either method. They were a bad team with low expectations. Two positions, center and point guard, were obvious holes that needed to be filled. More broadly, they lacked high level NBA talent and had only a few players who were well suited for the style of Coach Jim O'Brien.

With their lottery pick, Larry Bird drafted Tyler Hansborough, a superstar collegian who was clearly not the most talented player on the board. Most of the folks who were excited about his selection were not convinced about his NBA potential but instead raved about his NBA readiness. This presumes then that the Pacers were trying to fill an immediate need with Hansborough. Except that power forward, Hansborough's only viable NBA position, was a position of strength for the Pacers! Troy Murphy was one of the league's few double-double (double figures in points and rebounds) guys AND he fits perfectly into O'Brien's offense as a top level 3 point shooter.

Instead of choosing for talent or need, Bird seemed to be choosing the guy he liked the most. Whether that affinity is about personality, style, work ethic or some other factor, it was a silly choice. For a team that has virtually no chance at improving itself through free agency, making smart trades and excellent draft selections is paramount. Next week, the Pacers have a chance to begin making good on the progress the team showed at the end of the year. They can't afford another miss.

FDO

 

 

Red ball. Blue ball. Baseball.

The obviously blown call that stole a perfect game from Armando Galarraga should push Bud Selig and the rest of baseball’s elite to create a strong, consistent replay system of some sort. I strongly believe that in a game struggling to maintain the interest of young people, instituting instant replay could be an opportunity to make baseball seem more a 21^st and less a 20^th century game. Baseball’s challenge system should be fun.

 

Here’s my idea. A manager can consult with the umpires on the field and decide to challenge a ruling (or non-ruling). The manager gives the umpire a red ball. If the manager wins the challenge, the umpire returns the red ball. If not, the umpire keeps it. The manager can continue to use the red ball until he loses a challenge (and the ball).

 

After the red ball has been taken, the manager will still have a blue ball. This ball serves the same function as the red ball except that the blue ball, once taken, will not be returned until the end of the series. Baseball series are usually three games but not always. In some ways, two and four game series may play out a bit differently relative to challenge strategy.

 

The entire process will add intrigue, drama, strategy and hopefully fairness to individual baseball games. These are the elements that will help ensure folks are talking about baseball for all the right reasons.

 

FDO

2009-10 NBA Playoff Predictions Part 2

 

Conference Semifinals:

East   

Cleveland vs. Boston

Cleveland in 5 games.

This is the last stand for the Celtics’ Big Three and I believe they will begin re-tooling immediately after the Cavs spank them in 5 games. The Cavs match up exceptionally well with Boston, especially since Kevin Garnett can no longer produce a series averaging 30 points and 15 rebounds a game. Even if KG manages to play Antawn Jamison to a draw, the Celtics only have a strong advantage at one position, point guard. And unfortunately for Rajon Rondo, the Cavs big men have lots of fouls to use discouraging forays to the basket since they won’t have to worry about Boston interior scoring. Again, this is just a great matchup for Cleveland and they’ll head into their rematch with Orlando with lots of rest.

 

Orlando vs. Atlanta

Orlando in 6 games.

Even though I think the Hawks have the potential to knock off the Magic, both teams will head into this series expecting Orlando to win. Dwight Howard will dominate Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia (who will play big minutes because Horford will be in foul trouble all series long) down low and I expect Vince Carter to have a stellar series against fellow Tar Heel Marvin Williams. Orlando just has too many weapons for the Hawks to deal with. Much like the Celtics in the parallel Eastern series, I anticipate this being the swan song for this group of Hawks with Joe Johnson and Mike Woodson both leaving for greener pastures in the summer. Much greener than Atlanta ownership wants to provide.

 

West

Los Angeles vs. Utah

LA in 7 games.

I think the second round of the Western conference playoffs may be among the best two weeks of basketball we’ve seen for awhile. Utah and LA have strong frontlines with great depth and talent. Those groups will be close to a draw with health perhaps determining the advantage. The contrasts between the Jazz strength at point guard with Deron Williams and the Lakers dominant shooting guard, Kobe Bryant, are fascinating and may decide the series in the last minute of a few games. At the end of games, Kobe can slow D-Will down but the Jazz strong defenders will be called for fouls by violating Kobe’s arms, legs, wrist, left hand or aura. The Utah faithful will pay close attention to which referees are assigned to the games, particularly if there’s a game 7 in Staples Center. In the end, the dream of a Kobe-LeBron Finals will continue at least one more round.

 

Dallas vs. Phoenix

Dallas in 7 games.

I anticipate this being another classic series although I would guess there to be at least a couple blowouts and giant momentum shifts in this matchup.  While the stars will almost certainly perform at high levels, I expect this series to be decided by role players. It will take big games by Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley, Brendan Haywood and Shawn Marion to tip the balance.  Phoenix’ second tier players just aren’t as good as Dallas’. As much as I’d love to go against chalk here, I  think Dallas is just enough better to put the Suns away.

 

 

Conference Finals:

East

Cleveland vs. Orlando

Orlando in 6 games.

Everyone thinks that the Cavs are bound for the Finals but I still think Orlando will knock them off. LeBron is the best player in the world and he has strongest supporting cast yet but I don’t think they’re strong enough to outplay the Magic. At virtually every position (besides King James of course) the Magic has an advantage. If the Cavs could send Shaq and Antawn Jamison into a time machine to 2005 things would be different but in 2010 those two simply can’t play with Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis for a series. Although I love Shaq and appreciate the shape he’s worked himself into during his thumb injury, I expect this series to put the silly Superman debate to rest. Howard may have a couple 35-18-7 games like the ones Shaq threw up ten years ago. Combine the positional advantages with the coaching dichotomy between Mike Brown and Stan Van Gundy and I anticipate the Magic putting a dispiriting end to the LeBron era in Cleveland. (Whoops, that slipped out.)

 

West

Los Angeles vs. Dallas

Dallas in 6 games.

Dallas will defeat the Lakers largely because they have a strong team concept and can win close games. Even though Dallas does not have current team experience going deep in the playoffs, many of their individual players do. Dirk, J-Kidd, ‘The Jet’, Erick Dampier and ‘The Matrix’ all have been to the conference finals before and will expect to win this year. Rick Carlisle is one of the few coaches with zero fear of the Zen Master and Dallas won’t be rattled by bad calls or brief Kobe explosions. The Lakers, meanwhile, will be running on fumes after an intense, physical series with the Jazz. Unlike last year, when the Lakers were able to win close games against the Nuggets because of Rocky Mountain meltdowns, they’ll have to take games from the Mavericks because Dallas won’t give them any easy opportunities or second chances. Dallas will also keep Kobe from embarrassing them as he has so many times in the past. Caron Butler and Shawn Marion just won’t allow it.

 

 

NBA Finals:

Orlando vs. Dallas

Orlando in 5 games.

Yes, the Orlando Magic win their first championship after 2 previous trips to the Finals.

I think Orlando poses a horrible series of matchup problems for the Mavericks. To have any chance at all, Dallas will have to win one of the first two games in Orlando. If they manage that, the Finals may be competitive but I anticipate Orlando taking out its last year frustrations our on the Mavs. The Magic have many of the strengths that the Mavs do but with younger, more athletic players doing the same things. One of the secret Jedi mind tricks Stan Van Gundy has played very well this season is inserting a hot guy into the lineup and riding him. That means guys like Mikael Pietrus, Ryan Anderson, Marcin Gortat, Matt Barnes and JJ Redick all expect that they’ll have a chance to contribute if they play well. Rick Carlisle does not have that kind of trust in his players and the pressure on the Mavs will be horrific. This may be the last best chance for Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, two all time greats but Finals losers, to get a ring. I don’t think Brendan Haywood, JJ Barea and Roddy Beaubois will perform up to their capabilities, especially if the Magic take an early series lead.

For Dwight Howard, Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson this will be a great time to elevate their careers. Howard as a potential MVP candidate, VC as a sure fire Hall of Famer and Jameer as a legitimate All-Star player. Consider also that SVG was given the boot just before Dwyane Wade won a title for the Heat (through no fault of his own) and was embarrassed in last year’s Finals by Phil Jackson and I think the Magic will be playing their very best basketball of the year at precisely the right time.

For the second consecutive year, the Finals loser will follow up by winning the title. I don’t think that’s happened since 1988 but that’s what I’m predicting. Now let’s see where the next two months take us.  

 

FDO

2009-10 NBA Playoff Predictions

Round 1:

East

Cleveland vs. Chicago

Cleveland in 5 games. 

Cleveland is interested in a sweep but I suspect the Bulls will have at least one game in which they make lots of 3 pointers and enough hustle plays to take the series back to Cleveland. That’s about the best they can hope for. Well, other than getting a new coach and D-Wade to show up during the summer.

Boston vs. Miami

Boston in 5 games. 

Boston should dominate this series since they have 4 of the 5 best players. Despite Dwyane Wade’s brilliance, the Celtics interior depth will keep the Heat from having much success rebounding or scoring in the paint. Boston’s defensive rep should keep D-Wade below a dozen free throws per game. Boston will be able to use this series to round back into shape, setting up the matchup with the Cavs they’ve longed to have.

Atlanta vs. Milwaukee  

Atlanta in 4 games. 

This may rival the Suns-Trail Blazers for least competitive series. Atlanta will be excited for the chance to get into the second round and get some rest while waiting for the Magic-Bobcats winner. Milwaukee’s a great story but have very little chance to take a single game.

Orlando vs. Charlotte

Orlando in 5 games.  

As much as I like the Bobcats’ swingman duo of Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson, they don’t have a strong advantage over the Magic at those two positions and are severely behind them in virtually every other category. Larry Brown is a great coach but not good enough to overcome the talent disadvantages he’ll be facing.

West

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City

LA in 6 games.

An LA victory feels like a fait accomplit even though I’m not sure it should.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will have monster series but the Lakers have tremendous strength, flexibility, coaching and experience. I think the Thunder will grab a couple games and put a little fear into the Lakers, perhaps even taking two of the first three games. Once the Lakers get the ship rolling though, I think they’ll overwhelm the Thunder. If Jeff Green were a more consistent player, the Thunder would have more than a puncher’s chance but he doesn’t have enough help in the post.

Denver vs. Utah

Utah in 6 games.

I’d love to see these teams play a series when fully healthy but that certainly won’t be the case this postseason. Even though I think Carmelo Anthony may average 35 points a game, the Jazz duo of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer is looking to make a deep run this year and are primed to do that against the Nuggets’ defense. As great as Chauncey Billups continues to be, D-Will is physically dominant and Nene, ‘The Birdman’ Chris Andersen and a hobbled Kenyon Martin will have a very tough time keeping Boozer, Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur from combining to average 60 points and 30 rebounds between them.

Phoenix vs. Portland

Phoenix in 4 games.

This is the other matchup I can envision being not just a sweep but perhaps a sweep with multiple double digit wins. Brandon Roy won’t have any chance to come back from his meniscus surgery and LaMarcus Aldridge won’t be able to handle the energized Amaré Stoudemire well enough to stay out of foul trouble.

Dallas vs. San Antonio

Dallas in 5 games.

Dallas is clearly on a mission and they have the talent, depth, athleticism and experience to beat the Spurs. Even though I expected the Spurs to compete for the NBA title at the start of the year, the Richard Jefferson experiment has failed miserably and Caron Butler will eat him alive in this series. I expect Shawn Marion and Roddy Beaubois to have the bulk of the minutes guarding Tony Parker which means Jason Kidd and Manu Ginobili will find themselves in a great battle of smart, crafty hustlers. This will be a fun series to watch but I don’t see the Spurs making the critical plays at the end of games. With Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Caron Butler and Jason Kidd, the Mavs have four guys who love big moments and big shots.

More predictions soon.

FDO

Going for Gordon?

Lottery?!? You’re talking about lottery?!?

Uh no. Lots of folks in Indiana have suggested that Butler forward Gordon Hayward may be drafted by the Pacers this summer. Since the Pacers are not in the playoffs I have to repeat myself. Just a moment.

Lottery?!? You’re talking about lottery?!?

I am not a particular fan of Larry Bird’s work as an exec but taking Hayward would be a shocking development even for him.

People wonder about Hayward’s appeal to the Pacers because of some helpful non-basketball factors. He’s White, he’s local, he’s a folk hero kid, he’s from a team system, he’s super smart and he’s entirely clean cut Hoosier to the core.

While all those things are true, I don’t think Bird will make that kind of reach. (I think Bird may be willing to trade out of the lottery and add a second late first rounder or early second round pick so he can delay taking Dallas’ second rounder until next year when the Mavs pick will likely come earlier. If that happens and Bird’s drafting between 18 and 25, he’d probably be excited to grab Hayward then.) The biggest issue is simply that this is the deepest draft in a couple decades if not ever. I know that’s a giant statement but because of the underclassmen declaring early to avoid Collective Bargaining limbo next year there are lots of guys who would normally stay in school (uh, like Gordon Hayward) are headed to the draft.

Beyond the competition, Hayward is not Bird’s ideal kind of player. He’s quite young and Bird loves seniors; Hayward doesn’t have an obvious NBA position and Bird likes guys who fit clearly defined roles; Hayward mirrors Mike Dunleavy in ways that may make Bird wary; finally, Bird’s track record indicates that he does not feel the kind of pressure many execs do the placate his fan base when draft day arrives.

Please remember that a couple years ago, Broad Ripple high and IUPUI senior George Hill was available for the Pacers but Bird didn’t jump. Hill fit the Pacers’ needs at the time much better than Hayward does now and filled the non-basketball factors (except his race) just as well as Hayward does. Hill is excelling with the Spurs and perhaps Bird believes Hayward will have the same impact but I don’t think Bird will be willing to spend his lottery pick to find out.

FDO

All-NBA Teams for 2009-10

First Team

G Dwyane Wade

G Kobe Bryant

F LeBron James

F Kevin Durant

C Dwight Howard

These selections feel pretty obvious to me. I should note that, for all three teams, I list the players in rank order within position. D-Wade was the first guard on my team while Kobe was the second and so on.

Second Team

G Steve Nash

G Deron Williams

F Dirk Nowitzki

F Amare Stoudemire

C Andrew Bogut

Nash and Williams or Williams and Nash. They were clearly the third and fourth best guards in the league this year. The last game of the year ultimately determined my order for them.

Believe it or not, I almost feel badly for Dirk Nowitzki. Sure he’s won an MVP and is the NBA’s best European player ever but he’ll probably end his career as a top 50 all time player with only 1 or 2 First Team All-NBA selections. As great as he’s been (again) this year, he not only doesn’t make first team this year, but he could have easily fallen behind Amaré and Carmelo. The Mavs finished ahead of the Suns and although Dallas has more team talent, Dirk gets credit for being the only top level guy on his team. Amaré and Carmelo both have dynamic point guards who score well and require lots of defensive attention from opponents. So narrowly, I have Dirk, Amaré then Carmelo.  

As I mentioned yesterday, Andrew Bogut has had a sensational season and clearly deserves this second team nod. At this time last year, I anticipated this slot being filled by Andrew Bynum, Yao Ming, Greg Oden or Andrea Bargnani. I’d given up on Bogut being more than a serviceable center but I was absolutely wrong.

Third Team

G Joe Johnson

G Brandon Roy

F Carmelo Anthony

F Zach Randolph

C Brook Lopez

Johnson and Roy are similar players with similar teams. Johnson gets the nod due to his better health and Atlanta’s team success. Next year may be the season when Roy leaps ahead of him but since Chris Paul will likely be healthy, third team may be B-Roy’s level for the next couple years.

Carmelo was an easy choice here but Z-Bo was not. Lots of folks will probably pillory this choice but virtually all his numbers are in line with the other candidates and he did this great work on a radically transformed team with other scoring happy guys. Randolph kept the Grizzlies in playoff contention even though most of us thought they’d be lucky to win 30 games. And maybe the most amazing thing of all; Zach Randolph made his teammates better. The other four starters for Memphis all did more than could have been expected this year with Z-Bo as the anchor, lightning rod and leader.

Brook Lopez is the center choice for me. Al Horford got the All-Star nod but didn’t deserve it and David Lee put up nice numbers but in a system and environment conducive to great stats, didn’t deliver those. Let’s just put it this way: Wouldn’t you trade David Lee if you could get Brook Lopez, right now?

Honorable Mention (next 10 regardless of position)

Carlos Boozer    Tim Duncan     Chauncey Billups   Paul Pierce   Rajon Rondo  Pau Gasol     Chris Bosh    Danny Granger     David Lee     Chris  Paul   

Out of these ten guys are 8 forwards (Lee is only a center because the Knicks’ legit centers are atrocious.) which means they get squeezed out. Were Duncan willing to be labeled a center (which he really has been since David Robinson retired) he would have been second team. The other guys will have to settle for All-Star games. Rondo has a chance at making All-NBA next year if his mid-range game improves and CP3 may combine with Darren Collison to form the best backcourt in the league next year. Even if Collison regresses some, as long as Paul is healthy he should battle Wade and Bryant for 1^st team honors.

FDO

NBA Awards 2009-10 Part 1

NBA’s Best in 2009-10

 

All 82 games matter so I never finalize my awards predictions until the season ends. This year, the only drama for me was between #2 and 3 on my MVP list. I don’t think I would have changed my choice had the Magic and Lakers tied for the second best record in the league but that distinction is pretty important.  

 

 

Part 1

 

MVP

 

1. LeBron James

2. Dwight Howard

3. Kevin Durant

 

LeBron is a clear winner. He’s the best offensive player, one of the best 15 or so defensive players and the catalyst for the best team in the league. Right now, LeBron is the only basketball player in the world that can do everything very well.

 

Dwight Howard edges Kevin Durant by a small margin for me. Durant is my favorite player to watch on the offensive end of the court and Howard my favorite defender. The substitution test says Durant should finish 2^nd here. (Imagine replacing each guy with an average player at his position then consider what the team would do.) Durant’s Thunder would be in the 35 win range while Howard’s Magic would still be well above .500. This year, though, the substitution test would fail to acknowledge that the Magic have had important players in and out of the lineup all year but have never really faltered. That’s almost entirely due to Howard. He’s been the constant force that’s maintained some offensive continuity and transformed a group of poor individual defenders into a top tier defensive unit. Durant’s made impressive strides defensively but he’s (at best) the Thunder’s fourth best defender and that difference plus Orlando’s second best record status pushes Howard past Durant by a nose. 

 

 

Rookie of the Year

 

1. Tyreke Evans

2. Brandon Jennings

3. Stephen Curry

 

This is a classic multi-player race reminiscent of MVP races in ’73 and ’90. In the end, Evans’ raw numbers are so extraordinary I believe I would have to search for reasons NOT to give him the nod. As reported widely, he’s joined Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the only rookies to average 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Perhaps more amazing is taking a moment to consider the rookies who didn’t meet those marks. We’re talking about the most versatile guys in history, players like Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Rick Barry, Julius Erving, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, Grant Hill and Tim Duncan. NONE of those guys did what Tyreke Evans has done. It’s gotta be Evans.

 

In most years, Brandon Jennings would be an easy choice for this award. 55 points in a single game and quarterbacking a basement dweller to the playoffs without their only star player? Jennings’ campaign began and ended in truly spectacular fashion. However a dip in his play during the middle portion of the season provides some justification for pulling him down to second. Second to Tyreke Evans is still a remarkable accomplishment, clearly validating Jennings’ experiment to Italy.

 

Third on my list is the guy many are predicting to be the best in this rookie class and perhaps an all-time great, Stephen Curry. Curry had a slower start than the meteors above him but is already being considered for next year’s All-Star Game. Curry can pass, shoot, score, rebound and defend at a high rate and excelled in the midst of an amazingly dysfunctional situation. The area where Curry’s NBA pedigree serves him best though is his decision making. On a super high volume offensive team, he still managed to create a nice balance of shooting and passing. His backcourt mate, Monta Ellis, was at his very best late in the year when he began mimicking Curry’s efforts to share the rock.  Not to slight, Ellis but because Curry and Evans do so many different things well it’s already become a pipe dream of mine to watch those two play in the same backcourt for a season. ASGs just won’t be enough!

 

FDO

 

Part 2 is next!

NBA Awards 2009-10 Part 2

NBA’s Best in 2009-10

 

Part 2

 

Defensive Player of the Year

 

1. Dwight Howard

2. Josh Smith

3. Rajon Rondo

 

Another easy award. Howard dominates the paint like no player since Hakeem Olajuwon. (No, Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace were not in the same class.) While some folks are suggesting that LeBron may be in the midst of a string of MVP awards, his competition is closer to him than Howard’s is for DPY.

 

Josh Smith is getting lots of attention this year for his improved offensive efficiency but he’s improved even more defensively. As good as Atlanta has become, their lack of size at the center position is still a defensive weakness and neither Al Horford nor Zaza Pachulia does much to discourage penetrators from getting to the rim. That’s where J-Smoove comes in to play. His wingspan, hops and aggressiveness improve the Hawks’ interior defense immensely. As a face up defender, he’s done a stellar job against the amazing variety of power forwards in the league despite giving up inches to most. Being a 4 man who can switch out onto quick, short guards, also helps protect the Hawks’ defensively challenged point guard crew.

 

Rondo has regressed just a little bit this season as his offensive responsibilities have grown but he’s still clearly the best defensive guard in the league. To be fair to Rondo, not only has he done more offensively but with Kevin Garnett’s continuing physical ailments, Rondo’s taken the defensive reins as well. On a team with 3 future Hall of Famers, Rondo was the best and most indispensible Celtic this year.

 

Most Improved Player

 

1. Andrew Bogut

2. Rajon Rondo

3. Aaron Brooks

 

Bogut wins this award for me because he took the greatest leap of any non-star. (Durant’s improvement was the most in the league this year but his potential was so evident as to minimize my level of surprise. Besides, this isn’t the award he wants to win.) Bogut became the main cog on a playoff team that surpassed all expectations. Not only did Bogut score better, but he became a real force defensively. With a rookie point guard and new coach, Bogut moved in one season out of the Top Pick Bust bin into All-NBA consideration.

 

As I mentioned before, Rondo elevated his game tremendously this season. Every element of his game has improved and next year Rondo has a legit chance to be an All-NBA performer.

 

Aaron Brooks has surprised me for the entire year. I kept expecting him to fall apart at some point doing the season and it never happened. I thought he’d struggle because of the stellar West point guards, then I thought Kevin Martin’s acquisition would push Brooks to the periphery, then I expected he’d fall apart from overwork during the Rockets’ playoff push. Instead, Brooks has matured and improved enough that he appears to be Houston’s long-term successor to Stevie Franchise.

 

Coach of the Year

 

1. Scott Skiles

2. Alvin Gentry
3. Scott Brooks

 

Most folks think this is the Scott Squared show but Alvin Gentry’s Suns are just as much a surprise as the Thunder. After considering last year’s directions and the talent on the two rosters encourages me to slide Gentry just ahead of Scotty Brooks. These Western squads are both tremendous stories but Scott Skiles’ Bucks are preposterous! I pegged the Bucks to win around 30 games this year but instead they won 46 and would have had a real chance at winning a playoff series had Bogut not been injured. Skiles makes this a rare, easy selection in this category.

 

 

FDO

 

0 for 4 Million

ESPN.com has had more than 4 million entries in its NCAA men's basketball tournament bracket contest. Now, with 16 teams left in the tourney, there are 0 entries who have all 16 of the teams listed. Amazing.

FDO

NBA Jam is Fantastic!

Here's an NBA junkie's confession...I was never fixated on NBA Jam but I feel now as though I missed out. Highlights from this article include discovering that:

 

Shaq not only owned two machines but made one of them the team travel video game. Yes, they carried it on the road!

Michael Jordan and Gary Payton were on the same team. Kinda.

Bill Clinton and 'The Big Hurt' Frank Thomas both had characters.

The game is haunted. Well, that's what the creator of the game says at least.

Check it out.

 

FDO

Sometimes it's hard...

...to be a Pacers' fan.

Marc Stein says,

April 14: Indiana at Washington (ESPN)
The Pacers somehow wind up closing out an interminably long 82 games against a team that wants the season to be over even more than they do.

 

FDO

Bizzaro World

Sunday, Peyton Manning fails to shake hands after the Super Bowl. Vince Carter scores 48 points and has the ball in his hands with several seconds left and a clear Magic victory. But he doesn’t shoot! I feel so confused.

 

FDO