Gayle Force Press

Lead Us (to Ill Repute)

 

Today I saw a feature on ESPN’s College Football Live show called the Urban Meyer Leadership Series. I had just turned to ESPN so my initial response was to wait for the punchline… I mean, Urban Meyer? Really, Urban Meyer? This guy has clearly succeeded as a coach and just as clearly failed as a leader. His program has been riddled with arrests. How is it that this guy gets to be perceived as a credible source for leadership? This is part of the pattern of college coaching that saddens me.

 

Jim Tressel is finally forced to resign at Ohio State and Ohio high school coaches decide to honor him by planning to dress like Tressel in their first game.  What example does this set for the athletes and communities of Ohio? Since you won, it doesn’t matter that you lack basic integrity? What other message could there be?

 

Sadly, the situation is probably worse in men’s college basketball. Kelvin Sampson and Jim Calipari left town just ahead of the NCAA posse in multiple locations. Both these guys had programs with major violation stacked on major violation. Distressingly, they continue to fall up, instead of down. Calipari has one of the very best jobs in his profession and Sampson is now the lead assistant for the NBA’s Houston Rockets and is perceived as a likely NBA head coach starting next summer. No penance has to be paid if you get to bowl games or the Sweet Sixteen. Conference championships and rivalry dominance absolve a multitude of sins.

 

Fans of college athletics are so accustomed to this sad situation that today there’s very little outrage about the ways college coaches abuse the system, their universities and their players. Or even the taxpayers who fund their million dollar salaries. It seems that Al Davis bespoke the future of college sports decades ago. Davis’ magic phrase? “Just win, baby.”

 

 

FDO

 

Half Man, Half Missing

 

I watched the Suns-Thunder game Wednesday night and was awestruck to watch Vince Carter playing like it was 2003. He was fantastic! He made offensive play after offensive play and was in such a groove that everyone in the building seemed to be waiting for him to do something special. It’s interesting to me that I initially typed ‘be’ instead of ‘do’. Most NBA fans have always expected him to ‘be’ legendary instead of just ‘doing’ some legendary things.

 

Carter made strength moves, speed moves, balance moves, lefty drives, baseline drives, fading jumpers and one spin move into a dunk that fewer than ten other guys in the league could pull off. It was a tantalizing reminder of how great Carter could have been. He’s one of the most physically gifted players I’ve ever seen and has always had phenomenal basketball skills. Carter really should have been the Chrissie to Kobe Bryant’s Martina.

 

But where talented athletes like Martina, Chrissie and Kobe were all obsessed with their sporting success, Vince has always seemed content to stay on the periphery of greatness. He has never been willing to push himself to develop new skills or average 10 free throws a game or dominate defensively. Usually, folks ask ‘what if’ about guys like Grant Hill, or even Vince’s cousin, Tracy McGrady who saw their careers limited by physical injuries to ankles, knees or feet. Folks will always ask ‘what if’ about Vince too. But not about his ankles, about his heart.

 

 

FDO

 

Super Bowl Blogging-1st Quarter

Super Bowl Blogging-1^st Quarter

 

Why defer possession? Is that about gamesmanship or attempting to stave off nervousness?

 

Ah, momentum swings quickly.  The Steelers fans got so excited at the muffed punt then 2 minutes later, the Pack is at midfield and feeling great.

 

I don’t really care that much about Aaron Rodgers’ family history and how hard it was to be a late first round draft pick. Such tales of misery should wait for the second half.

 

I can already imagine the squawking from Packers fans about the near miss catch by Nelson on the first drive, followed by the near miss at pinning the Steelers near the goal line. So close, yet so far away…

 

The best advertising minds in the country came up with this tripe? I am glad to see that Kenny G still looks like, uh, Kenny G…

 

How many different ways will announcers obliquely refer to Ben Roethlisberger’s ‘troubles’ or ‘year’ or ‘difficulties’? I hope folks are using this as a drinking game…

 

Dwayne Johnson and Vin Diesel in the same movie? Wow, what a great chance to see the baddest ambiguously ethnic action stars in the same movie!

 

A Rod and Cameron Diaz? Are they the least Latin Latino stars in the US? Hey, I’m just asking? (Even the Anthem Killer did a Spanish language album a few years ago.)

 

If Aaron Rodgers is wearing a different helmet because he’s been concussed a couple times, shouldn’t everyone wear that different (presumably better) helmet?

 

Great pass to Nelson. It would have been hard for Nelson to drop that one.

 

When will people start calling Aaron Rodgers ‘A-Rod’? Andy Roddick was never gonna get it but perhaps…

I love that play callers get lots of credit in the NFL. On the touchdown play, the receiver WAS NOT OPEN! The play worked because AROD (see, no hyphen) threw a PERFECT pass. Not because of any schematic genius.

 

Cowboys vs. Aliens followed by Roman Gods vs. Indians? WTF? (No, not ‘win the future’.)

 

So, has Big Ben been 'unredeemed' now?

 

15 yard celebration penalty. Nope, you’re not allowed to celebrate the biggest play of your life in the No Fun League.

 

Boz Scaggs? Who knew?

 

Wow, Eminem sells tea? Wait a sec, did I write that? Yep. Eminem sells tea. Isn’t that the 4^th sign of the Apocalypse?

 

Emmanuel Sanders? What a fun name.

 

It’s still hard for me to hear the words “good protection” associated with Big Ben.

 

Within 10 seconds, Joe Buck says something about Big Ben like…

~ ’He looks like he can hardly move.

Now, he can move!’

C’mon Joe Buck, you’re better than that!

  

 

 

 

Science Over Sight

 

Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young award yesterday in what is being touted as a harbinger of a new age of baseball. In this new age, statistical complexity trumps conventional wisdom, and in some ways, the ability to believe what we see. One of the many charms of baseball is the ability to create much of individual games through the standard box score. At bats, runs, hits, RBI. Many baseball fans can get 95% of a game’s flow correct from those four stats in a box score. Any game! We can also determine the success level of players based on those box scores. For some, box scores have been an obsession because they indicate so much about baseball. (Tim Kurkjian writes about this beautifully.)

 

What sabermetric statistical analysis has done is to de-value what we see in our box scores. Those cherished box scores are only a portion of what indicates a player’s success. Discovering that the baseball writers who vote on Cy Young and other awards are willing to look beyond the box scores and the conventional measures of success really does seem to be an indication of how thoroughly this sabermetric revolution has taken hold.

 

There are two near certain next steps. One, virtually all baseball television coverage will soon show stat lines that shift during an at-bat. We’ll still see Batting Average, Runs Batted In and Home Runs. Then the scroll will shift to include On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and On-Base + Slugging Percentage. Then the scroll will shift again to include RC27 (Runs Created per 27 Innings), SECA (Secondary Average), ISOP (Isolated Power) and TB (Total Bases). By 2020, every kid discovering baseball will know those terms as naturally as I do ERA. And when that happens, the second next step will occur. Every computer will have ‘sabermetric’ in its spellcheck.

 

 

FDO

 

Dusty Baker, Tony LaRussa and Red Ruffians, or, Major League Blunders!

Why Baker and LaRussa should not see each other again this season.

I have a few thoughts about the Cardinals-Reds brawl from their last series. You may remember Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips made numerous provocative comments about the Cardinals then when he came to the plate, Yadier Molina chastised him, benches cleared, bodies flew and hell was raised. At least two pitchers were tossed against the fence in a scary scene. One of them, Johnny Cueto, received a seven game suspension because of kicking at the Cardinals surrounding him. Jason LaRue suffered a mild concussion as a result. I firmly believe that Cueto’s lengthy suspension was based on the injury that his actions caused, not the actions themselves. Random kicking into an onrushing crowd is much less dangerous than throwing a fastball at a batter’s head. Cueto was obviously frightened and, as a pitcher, smartly avoided throwing punches. As we’ve seen too many times, a single arm injury can cost a pitcher his career, millions of dollars and his team a championship.

More importantly, MLB should institute a blanket rule covering fighting the way the NBA has done. In the NBA, if you are on the bench and cross onto the playing floor you are automatically suspended. (I think there should be a little gray area there because basketball benches are so close to the court that players on the sidelines are often less than a step away from the court so crossing over sometimes happens during actual play, much less during a melee.) In baseball, the idea might be to simply punish anyone who comes onto the field or, if already on the field, leaves their legitimate area of engagement. That covers guys playing defense, warming up on the sidelines, the on-deck hitter, the base coaches, everybody. As usually happens in these fights, Phillips and Molina were yelling at each other but not fighting. It was only when 50 other guys crowded the area that things became physical. (Reason #37 professional sports are like junior high school.) Removing the additional people from the scene means that umpires and security personnel can tamp down confrontations quickly, easily and safely. Ideally, managers would be exempt from this rule and allowed to bring their players back to earth from Planet Testosterone.

That notion took a beating in the Phillips-Molina encounter because Tony LaRussa and Dusty Baker failed in their primary responsibility as managers during a fight. They did not serve as peacemakers protecting the game and their players, instead they escalated the confrontation. For them, two games was not a severe enough penalty. I think MLB missed a perfect opportunity to declare that fighting is a dangerous problem for baseball by dropping the hammer on these managers. Baker and LaRussa should have been suspended for the rest of the season series between these teams. I mean, full blown suspended too, as in, can’t enter the stadium during these series. These are old school guys who behave in old school ways that simply don’t make sense in 2010. These great managers behaved in ways that encouraged their players to fight. That is entirely unacceptable. What I am suggesting is the kind of draconian penalty that would make it clear to managers that fighting will no longer be tolerated. Too harsh? Perhaps. That’s kinda the point.

FDO

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP? Part 2.1

Late Update: Howard is now on the DL. Extra legitimacy to this post I believe.

An unfortunate addendum is that Votto’s NL MVP candidacy was indirectly strengthened this weekend. Ryan Howard, one of the slugging first basemen with legitimate MVP aspirations hurt his ankle and may miss some games. Howard was struggling a bit anyway and an ankle injury will make it even harder for him to excel down the stretch.

 

Even without injury, Howard would almost certainly have finished behind Votto in the key batting categories but the Phillies’ trade deadline moves seem to have put them in a great position to make the playoffs which would have raised Howard’s already outsized profile. Howard also has the credibility of being Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series champion. While some would shake their heads at a Votto MVP (as happened with Justin Morneau a couple seasons back), Howard and Albert Pujols would be safe choices this year. Votto may soon become the best choice.

 

FDO

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP? Part 2

 

An unfortunate addendum is that Votto’s NL MVP candidacy was indirectly strengthened this weekend. Ryan Howard, one of the slugging first basemen with legitimate MVP aspirations hurt his ankle and may miss some games. Howard was struggling a bit anyway and an ankle injury will make it even harder for him to excel down the stretch.

 

Even without injury, Howard would almost certainly have finished behind Votto in the key batting categories but the Phillies’ trade deadline moves seem to have put them in a great position to make the playoffs which would have raised Howard’s already outsized profile. Howard also has the credibility of being Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series champion. While some would shake their heads at a Votto MVP (as happened with Justin Morneau a couple seasons back), Howard and Albert Pujols would be safe choices this year. Votto may soon become the best choice.

 

FDO

 

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP?

I know that he was the last guy added to the National League All-Star team and I know the Cincinnati Reds are ahead of schedule but I've started wondering: Does the combination of team and player performance mean that Joey Votto should be the MVP of the league this year?

 

At the moment, Votto is first in the league in batting, home runs, tied for (a distant) third in RBI and has substantial leads in OPS and each of the component elements. Even though the Reds are technically out of the playoffs, by percentage, they are fundamentally tied with St. Louis for first place in the NL Central. Most casual baseball fans know Joey Votto primarily for the anxiety issues that put him on the DL for emotional distress last year. He’s put that sadness behind him and has made himself into one of the 10 best players in his sport. And right now, Votto has great individual stats for a team in the pennant race. It’s way too early for this to be definitive but so far, Votto sounds like the MVP to me.  

FDO

I Like the SuperFriends

Lots of folks are giving grief to LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade for making free agent moves to team up in Miami. The suggestions have primarily included the notion that winning with lots of talent is somehow illegitimate and the championships that the SuperFriends might win together for the Miami Heat would be tarnished.

What?!? Winning is the bottom line in sports. Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods were recently ranked as America’s favorite athletes. Why?  Because they are viewed as champions and this country loves a winner more than anything else. Between Eagle, Colorado and Thanksgiving at the fire hydrant, Kobe and Tiger could have been sports pariahs but instead they’re our favorite athletes. Success leads to popularity when it comes to sports. As much as the SuperFriends are being beaten up now, I feel confident that if they win 2 of the next 3 NBA titles, all 3 of those guys will be among the top jersey sellers and commercial endorsers in the entire league.

 From a basketball standpoint, I love these moves. All 3 of these guys were the dominant stars on their teams and that’s a rare and enviable position. To willingly forego that status along with the money and control that accompany it is impressive. For young men in their 20s to choose a communal path to success over an individualistic one, especially in the hypermasculine world of professional sports, is refreshing and should be applauded. I hope this shared vision will help create a new paradigm in sports, one that’s less about the Alpha Dog and more about the winning team.

 

FDO

 

 

 

 

Indiana Pacers Draft Strategy

Chad Ford (via Mike Wells) on the Indiana Pacers draft strategy:

The Pacers are willing to give up their pick - No. 10 - in next week's draft to get a player that will help them immediately.

The Pacers wouldn't be searching for a point guard if they had taken [Ty] Lawson instead of Tyler Hansbrough last year. Lawson, who was the Pacers' second option, averaged 8.3 points and 3.1 assists last season.

Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, Darren Collison and Eric Maynor were all still available when the Pacers picked at No. 13.

That’s what I’ve been saying! There are two conventional methods for making draft choices in the NBA. One is 'Talent'. Identifying the best available player and choosing that guy regardless of external circumstances. The second is 'Need'. This means determining what your team needs in order to fill a gap or serve a particular purpose.

Last year, the Pacers were in position to choose either method. They were a bad team with low expectations. Two positions, center and point guard, were obvious holes that needed to be filled. More broadly, they lacked high level NBA talent and had only a few players who were well suited for the style of Coach Jim O'Brien.

With their lottery pick, Larry Bird drafted Tyler Hansborough, a superstar collegian who was clearly not the most talented player on the board. Most of the folks who were excited about his selection were not convinced about his NBA potential but instead raved about his NBA readiness. This presumes then that the Pacers were trying to fill an immediate need with Hansborough. Except that power forward, Hansborough's only viable NBA position, was a position of strength for the Pacers! Troy Murphy was one of the league's few double-double (double figures in points and rebounds) guys AND he fits perfectly into O'Brien's offense as a top level 3 point shooter.

Instead of choosing for talent or need, Bird seemed to be choosing the guy he liked the most. Whether that affinity is about personality, style, work ethic or some other factor, it was a silly choice. For a team that has virtually no chance at improving itself through free agency, making smart trades and excellent draft selections is paramount. Next week, the Pacers have a chance to begin making good on the progress the team showed at the end of the year. They can't afford another miss.

FDO

 

 

2009-10 NBA Playoff Predictions Part 2

 

Conference Semifinals:

East   

Cleveland vs. Boston

Cleveland in 5 games.

This is the last stand for the Celtics’ Big Three and I believe they will begin re-tooling immediately after the Cavs spank them in 5 games. The Cavs match up exceptionally well with Boston, especially since Kevin Garnett can no longer produce a series averaging 30 points and 15 rebounds a game. Even if KG manages to play Antawn Jamison to a draw, the Celtics only have a strong advantage at one position, point guard. And unfortunately for Rajon Rondo, the Cavs big men have lots of fouls to use discouraging forays to the basket since they won’t have to worry about Boston interior scoring. Again, this is just a great matchup for Cleveland and they’ll head into their rematch with Orlando with lots of rest.

 

Orlando vs. Atlanta

Orlando in 6 games.

Even though I think the Hawks have the potential to knock off the Magic, both teams will head into this series expecting Orlando to win. Dwight Howard will dominate Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia (who will play big minutes because Horford will be in foul trouble all series long) down low and I expect Vince Carter to have a stellar series against fellow Tar Heel Marvin Williams. Orlando just has too many weapons for the Hawks to deal with. Much like the Celtics in the parallel Eastern series, I anticipate this being the swan song for this group of Hawks with Joe Johnson and Mike Woodson both leaving for greener pastures in the summer. Much greener than Atlanta ownership wants to provide.

 

West

Los Angeles vs. Utah

LA in 7 games.

I think the second round of the Western conference playoffs may be among the best two weeks of basketball we’ve seen for awhile. Utah and LA have strong frontlines with great depth and talent. Those groups will be close to a draw with health perhaps determining the advantage. The contrasts between the Jazz strength at point guard with Deron Williams and the Lakers dominant shooting guard, Kobe Bryant, are fascinating and may decide the series in the last minute of a few games. At the end of games, Kobe can slow D-Will down but the Jazz strong defenders will be called for fouls by violating Kobe’s arms, legs, wrist, left hand or aura. The Utah faithful will pay close attention to which referees are assigned to the games, particularly if there’s a game 7 in Staples Center. In the end, the dream of a Kobe-LeBron Finals will continue at least one more round.

 

Dallas vs. Phoenix

Dallas in 7 games.

I anticipate this being another classic series although I would guess there to be at least a couple blowouts and giant momentum shifts in this matchup.  While the stars will almost certainly perform at high levels, I expect this series to be decided by role players. It will take big games by Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley, Brendan Haywood and Shawn Marion to tip the balance.  Phoenix’ second tier players just aren’t as good as Dallas’. As much as I’d love to go against chalk here, I  think Dallas is just enough better to put the Suns away.

 

 

Conference Finals:

East

Cleveland vs. Orlando

Orlando in 6 games.

Everyone thinks that the Cavs are bound for the Finals but I still think Orlando will knock them off. LeBron is the best player in the world and he has strongest supporting cast yet but I don’t think they’re strong enough to outplay the Magic. At virtually every position (besides King James of course) the Magic has an advantage. If the Cavs could send Shaq and Antawn Jamison into a time machine to 2005 things would be different but in 2010 those two simply can’t play with Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis for a series. Although I love Shaq and appreciate the shape he’s worked himself into during his thumb injury, I expect this series to put the silly Superman debate to rest. Howard may have a couple 35-18-7 games like the ones Shaq threw up ten years ago. Combine the positional advantages with the coaching dichotomy between Mike Brown and Stan Van Gundy and I anticipate the Magic putting a dispiriting end to the LeBron era in Cleveland. (Whoops, that slipped out.)

 

West

Los Angeles vs. Dallas

Dallas in 6 games.

Dallas will defeat the Lakers largely because they have a strong team concept and can win close games. Even though Dallas does not have current team experience going deep in the playoffs, many of their individual players do. Dirk, J-Kidd, ‘The Jet’, Erick Dampier and ‘The Matrix’ all have been to the conference finals before and will expect to win this year. Rick Carlisle is one of the few coaches with zero fear of the Zen Master and Dallas won’t be rattled by bad calls or brief Kobe explosions. The Lakers, meanwhile, will be running on fumes after an intense, physical series with the Jazz. Unlike last year, when the Lakers were able to win close games against the Nuggets because of Rocky Mountain meltdowns, they’ll have to take games from the Mavericks because Dallas won’t give them any easy opportunities or second chances. Dallas will also keep Kobe from embarrassing them as he has so many times in the past. Caron Butler and Shawn Marion just won’t allow it.

 

 

NBA Finals:

Orlando vs. Dallas

Orlando in 5 games.

Yes, the Orlando Magic win their first championship after 2 previous trips to the Finals.

I think Orlando poses a horrible series of matchup problems for the Mavericks. To have any chance at all, Dallas will have to win one of the first two games in Orlando. If they manage that, the Finals may be competitive but I anticipate Orlando taking out its last year frustrations our on the Mavs. The Magic have many of the strengths that the Mavs do but with younger, more athletic players doing the same things. One of the secret Jedi mind tricks Stan Van Gundy has played very well this season is inserting a hot guy into the lineup and riding him. That means guys like Mikael Pietrus, Ryan Anderson, Marcin Gortat, Matt Barnes and JJ Redick all expect that they’ll have a chance to contribute if they play well. Rick Carlisle does not have that kind of trust in his players and the pressure on the Mavs will be horrific. This may be the last best chance for Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, two all time greats but Finals losers, to get a ring. I don’t think Brendan Haywood, JJ Barea and Roddy Beaubois will perform up to their capabilities, especially if the Magic take an early series lead.

For Dwight Howard, Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson this will be a great time to elevate their careers. Howard as a potential MVP candidate, VC as a sure fire Hall of Famer and Jameer as a legitimate All-Star player. Consider also that SVG was given the boot just before Dwyane Wade won a title for the Heat (through no fault of his own) and was embarrassed in last year’s Finals by Phil Jackson and I think the Magic will be playing their very best basketball of the year at precisely the right time.

For the second consecutive year, the Finals loser will follow up by winning the title. I don’t think that’s happened since 1988 but that’s what I’m predicting. Now let’s see where the next two months take us.  

 

FDO

2009-10 NBA Playoff Predictions

Round 1:

East

Cleveland vs. Chicago

Cleveland in 5 games. 

Cleveland is interested in a sweep but I suspect the Bulls will have at least one game in which they make lots of 3 pointers and enough hustle plays to take the series back to Cleveland. That’s about the best they can hope for. Well, other than getting a new coach and D-Wade to show up during the summer.

Boston vs. Miami

Boston in 5 games. 

Boston should dominate this series since they have 4 of the 5 best players. Despite Dwyane Wade’s brilliance, the Celtics interior depth will keep the Heat from having much success rebounding or scoring in the paint. Boston’s defensive rep should keep D-Wade below a dozen free throws per game. Boston will be able to use this series to round back into shape, setting up the matchup with the Cavs they’ve longed to have.

Atlanta vs. Milwaukee  

Atlanta in 4 games. 

This may rival the Suns-Trail Blazers for least competitive series. Atlanta will be excited for the chance to get into the second round and get some rest while waiting for the Magic-Bobcats winner. Milwaukee’s a great story but have very little chance to take a single game.

Orlando vs. Charlotte

Orlando in 5 games.  

As much as I like the Bobcats’ swingman duo of Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson, they don’t have a strong advantage over the Magic at those two positions and are severely behind them in virtually every other category. Larry Brown is a great coach but not good enough to overcome the talent disadvantages he’ll be facing.

West

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City

LA in 6 games.

An LA victory feels like a fait accomplit even though I’m not sure it should.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will have monster series but the Lakers have tremendous strength, flexibility, coaching and experience. I think the Thunder will grab a couple games and put a little fear into the Lakers, perhaps even taking two of the first three games. Once the Lakers get the ship rolling though, I think they’ll overwhelm the Thunder. If Jeff Green were a more consistent player, the Thunder would have more than a puncher’s chance but he doesn’t have enough help in the post.

Denver vs. Utah

Utah in 6 games.

I’d love to see these teams play a series when fully healthy but that certainly won’t be the case this postseason. Even though I think Carmelo Anthony may average 35 points a game, the Jazz duo of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer is looking to make a deep run this year and are primed to do that against the Nuggets’ defense. As great as Chauncey Billups continues to be, D-Will is physically dominant and Nene, ‘The Birdman’ Chris Andersen and a hobbled Kenyon Martin will have a very tough time keeping Boozer, Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur from combining to average 60 points and 30 rebounds between them.

Phoenix vs. Portland

Phoenix in 4 games.

This is the other matchup I can envision being not just a sweep but perhaps a sweep with multiple double digit wins. Brandon Roy won’t have any chance to come back from his meniscus surgery and LaMarcus Aldridge won’t be able to handle the energized Amaré Stoudemire well enough to stay out of foul trouble.

Dallas vs. San Antonio

Dallas in 5 games.

Dallas is clearly on a mission and they have the talent, depth, athleticism and experience to beat the Spurs. Even though I expected the Spurs to compete for the NBA title at the start of the year, the Richard Jefferson experiment has failed miserably and Caron Butler will eat him alive in this series. I expect Shawn Marion and Roddy Beaubois to have the bulk of the minutes guarding Tony Parker which means Jason Kidd and Manu Ginobili will find themselves in a great battle of smart, crafty hustlers. This will be a fun series to watch but I don’t see the Spurs making the critical plays at the end of games. With Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Caron Butler and Jason Kidd, the Mavs have four guys who love big moments and big shots.

More predictions soon.

FDO

Going for Gordon?

Lottery?!? You’re talking about lottery?!?

Uh no. Lots of folks in Indiana have suggested that Butler forward Gordon Hayward may be drafted by the Pacers this summer. Since the Pacers are not in the playoffs I have to repeat myself. Just a moment.

Lottery?!? You’re talking about lottery?!?

I am not a particular fan of Larry Bird’s work as an exec but taking Hayward would be a shocking development even for him.

People wonder about Hayward’s appeal to the Pacers because of some helpful non-basketball factors. He’s White, he’s local, he’s a folk hero kid, he’s from a team system, he’s super smart and he’s entirely clean cut Hoosier to the core.

While all those things are true, I don’t think Bird will make that kind of reach. (I think Bird may be willing to trade out of the lottery and add a second late first rounder or early second round pick so he can delay taking Dallas’ second rounder until next year when the Mavs pick will likely come earlier. If that happens and Bird’s drafting between 18 and 25, he’d probably be excited to grab Hayward then.) The biggest issue is simply that this is the deepest draft in a couple decades if not ever. I know that’s a giant statement but because of the underclassmen declaring early to avoid Collective Bargaining limbo next year there are lots of guys who would normally stay in school (uh, like Gordon Hayward) are headed to the draft.

Beyond the competition, Hayward is not Bird’s ideal kind of player. He’s quite young and Bird loves seniors; Hayward doesn’t have an obvious NBA position and Bird likes guys who fit clearly defined roles; Hayward mirrors Mike Dunleavy in ways that may make Bird wary; finally, Bird’s track record indicates that he does not feel the kind of pressure many execs do the placate his fan base when draft day arrives.

Please remember that a couple years ago, Broad Ripple high and IUPUI senior George Hill was available for the Pacers but Bird didn’t jump. Hill fit the Pacers’ needs at the time much better than Hayward does now and filled the non-basketball factors (except his race) just as well as Hayward does. Hill is excelling with the Spurs and perhaps Bird believes Hayward will have the same impact but I don’t think Bird will be willing to spend his lottery pick to find out.

FDO

All-NBA Teams for 2009-10

First Team

G Dwyane Wade

G Kobe Bryant

F LeBron James

F Kevin Durant

C Dwight Howard

These selections feel pretty obvious to me. I should note that, for all three teams, I list the players in rank order within position. D-Wade was the first guard on my team while Kobe was the second and so on.

Second Team

G Steve Nash

G Deron Williams

F Dirk Nowitzki

F Amare Stoudemire

C Andrew Bogut

Nash and Williams or Williams and Nash. They were clearly the third and fourth best guards in the league this year. The last game of the year ultimately determined my order for them.

Believe it or not, I almost feel badly for Dirk Nowitzki. Sure he’s won an MVP and is the NBA’s best European player ever but he’ll probably end his career as a top 50 all time player with only 1 or 2 First Team All-NBA selections. As great as he’s been (again) this year, he not only doesn’t make first team this year, but he could have easily fallen behind Amaré and Carmelo. The Mavs finished ahead of the Suns and although Dallas has more team talent, Dirk gets credit for being the only top level guy on his team. Amaré and Carmelo both have dynamic point guards who score well and require lots of defensive attention from opponents. So narrowly, I have Dirk, Amaré then Carmelo.  

As I mentioned yesterday, Andrew Bogut has had a sensational season and clearly deserves this second team nod. At this time last year, I anticipated this slot being filled by Andrew Bynum, Yao Ming, Greg Oden or Andrea Bargnani. I’d given up on Bogut being more than a serviceable center but I was absolutely wrong.

Third Team

G Joe Johnson

G Brandon Roy

F Carmelo Anthony

F Zach Randolph

C Brook Lopez

Johnson and Roy are similar players with similar teams. Johnson gets the nod due to his better health and Atlanta’s team success. Next year may be the season when Roy leaps ahead of him but since Chris Paul will likely be healthy, third team may be B-Roy’s level for the next couple years.

Carmelo was an easy choice here but Z-Bo was not. Lots of folks will probably pillory this choice but virtually all his numbers are in line with the other candidates and he did this great work on a radically transformed team with other scoring happy guys. Randolph kept the Grizzlies in playoff contention even though most of us thought they’d be lucky to win 30 games. And maybe the most amazing thing of all; Zach Randolph made his teammates better. The other four starters for Memphis all did more than could have been expected this year with Z-Bo as the anchor, lightning rod and leader.

Brook Lopez is the center choice for me. Al Horford got the All-Star nod but didn’t deserve it and David Lee put up nice numbers but in a system and environment conducive to great stats, didn’t deliver those. Let’s just put it this way: Wouldn’t you trade David Lee if you could get Brook Lopez, right now?

Honorable Mention (next 10 regardless of position)

Carlos Boozer    Tim Duncan     Chauncey Billups   Paul Pierce   Rajon Rondo  Pau Gasol     Chris Bosh    Danny Granger     David Lee     Chris  Paul   

Out of these ten guys are 8 forwards (Lee is only a center because the Knicks’ legit centers are atrocious.) which means they get squeezed out. Were Duncan willing to be labeled a center (which he really has been since David Robinson retired) he would have been second team. The other guys will have to settle for All-Star games. Rondo has a chance at making All-NBA next year if his mid-range game improves and CP3 may combine with Darren Collison to form the best backcourt in the league next year. Even if Collison regresses some, as long as Paul is healthy he should battle Wade and Bryant for 1^st team honors.

FDO

NBA Awards 2009-10 Part 1

NBA’s Best in 2009-10

 

All 82 games matter so I never finalize my awards predictions until the season ends. This year, the only drama for me was between #2 and 3 on my MVP list. I don’t think I would have changed my choice had the Magic and Lakers tied for the second best record in the league but that distinction is pretty important.  

 

 

Part 1

 

MVP

 

1. LeBron James

2. Dwight Howard

3. Kevin Durant

 

LeBron is a clear winner. He’s the best offensive player, one of the best 15 or so defensive players and the catalyst for the best team in the league. Right now, LeBron is the only basketball player in the world that can do everything very well.

 

Dwight Howard edges Kevin Durant by a small margin for me. Durant is my favorite player to watch on the offensive end of the court and Howard my favorite defender. The substitution test says Durant should finish 2^nd here. (Imagine replacing each guy with an average player at his position then consider what the team would do.) Durant’s Thunder would be in the 35 win range while Howard’s Magic would still be well above .500. This year, though, the substitution test would fail to acknowledge that the Magic have had important players in and out of the lineup all year but have never really faltered. That’s almost entirely due to Howard. He’s been the constant force that’s maintained some offensive continuity and transformed a group of poor individual defenders into a top tier defensive unit. Durant’s made impressive strides defensively but he’s (at best) the Thunder’s fourth best defender and that difference plus Orlando’s second best record status pushes Howard past Durant by a nose. 

 

 

Rookie of the Year

 

1. Tyreke Evans

2. Brandon Jennings

3. Stephen Curry

 

This is a classic multi-player race reminiscent of MVP races in ’73 and ’90. In the end, Evans’ raw numbers are so extraordinary I believe I would have to search for reasons NOT to give him the nod. As reported widely, he’s joined Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the only rookies to average 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Perhaps more amazing is taking a moment to consider the rookies who didn’t meet those marks. We’re talking about the most versatile guys in history, players like Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Rick Barry, Julius Erving, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, Grant Hill and Tim Duncan. NONE of those guys did what Tyreke Evans has done. It’s gotta be Evans.

 

In most years, Brandon Jennings would be an easy choice for this award. 55 points in a single game and quarterbacking a basement dweller to the playoffs without their only star player? Jennings’ campaign began and ended in truly spectacular fashion. However a dip in his play during the middle portion of the season provides some justification for pulling him down to second. Second to Tyreke Evans is still a remarkable accomplishment, clearly validating Jennings’ experiment to Italy.

 

Third on my list is the guy many are predicting to be the best in this rookie class and perhaps an all-time great, Stephen Curry. Curry had a slower start than the meteors above him but is already being considered for next year’s All-Star Game. Curry can pass, shoot, score, rebound and defend at a high rate and excelled in the midst of an amazingly dysfunctional situation. The area where Curry’s NBA pedigree serves him best though is his decision making. On a super high volume offensive team, he still managed to create a nice balance of shooting and passing. His backcourt mate, Monta Ellis, was at his very best late in the year when he began mimicking Curry’s efforts to share the rock.  Not to slight, Ellis but because Curry and Evans do so many different things well it’s already become a pipe dream of mine to watch those two play in the same backcourt for a season. ASGs just won’t be enough!

 

FDO

 

Part 2 is next!

NBA Awards 2009-10 Part 2

NBA’s Best in 2009-10

 

Part 2

 

Defensive Player of the Year

 

1. Dwight Howard

2. Josh Smith

3. Rajon Rondo

 

Another easy award. Howard dominates the paint like no player since Hakeem Olajuwon. (No, Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace were not in the same class.) While some folks are suggesting that LeBron may be in the midst of a string of MVP awards, his competition is closer to him than Howard’s is for DPY.

 

Josh Smith is getting lots of attention this year for his improved offensive efficiency but he’s improved even more defensively. As good as Atlanta has become, their lack of size at the center position is still a defensive weakness and neither Al Horford nor Zaza Pachulia does much to discourage penetrators from getting to the rim. That’s where J-Smoove comes in to play. His wingspan, hops and aggressiveness improve the Hawks’ interior defense immensely. As a face up defender, he’s done a stellar job against the amazing variety of power forwards in the league despite giving up inches to most. Being a 4 man who can switch out onto quick, short guards, also helps protect the Hawks’ defensively challenged point guard crew.

 

Rondo has regressed just a little bit this season as his offensive responsibilities have grown but he’s still clearly the best defensive guard in the league. To be fair to Rondo, not only has he done more offensively but with Kevin Garnett’s continuing physical ailments, Rondo’s taken the defensive reins as well. On a team with 3 future Hall of Famers, Rondo was the best and most indispensible Celtic this year.

 

Most Improved Player

 

1. Andrew Bogut

2. Rajon Rondo

3. Aaron Brooks

 

Bogut wins this award for me because he took the greatest leap of any non-star. (Durant’s improvement was the most in the league this year but his potential was so evident as to minimize my level of surprise. Besides, this isn’t the award he wants to win.) Bogut became the main cog on a playoff team that surpassed all expectations. Not only did Bogut score better, but he became a real force defensively. With a rookie point guard and new coach, Bogut moved in one season out of the Top Pick Bust bin into All-NBA consideration.

 

As I mentioned before, Rondo elevated his game tremendously this season. Every element of his game has improved and next year Rondo has a legit chance to be an All-NBA performer.

 

Aaron Brooks has surprised me for the entire year. I kept expecting him to fall apart at some point doing the season and it never happened. I thought he’d struggle because of the stellar West point guards, then I thought Kevin Martin’s acquisition would push Brooks to the periphery, then I expected he’d fall apart from overwork during the Rockets’ playoff push. Instead, Brooks has matured and improved enough that he appears to be Houston’s long-term successor to Stevie Franchise.

 

Coach of the Year

 

1. Scott Skiles

2. Alvin Gentry
3. Scott Brooks

 

Most folks think this is the Scott Squared show but Alvin Gentry’s Suns are just as much a surprise as the Thunder. After considering last year’s directions and the talent on the two rosters encourages me to slide Gentry just ahead of Scotty Brooks. These Western squads are both tremendous stories but Scott Skiles’ Bucks are preposterous! I pegged the Bucks to win around 30 games this year but instead they won 46 and would have had a real chance at winning a playoff series had Bogut not been injured. Skiles makes this a rare, easy selection in this category.

 

 

FDO

 

0 for 4 Million

ESPN.com has had more than 4 million entries in its NCAA men's basketball tournament bracket contest. Now, with 16 teams left in the tourney, there are 0 entries who have all 16 of the teams listed. Amazing.

FDO

NBA Jam is Fantastic!

Here's an NBA junkie's confession...I was never fixated on NBA Jam but I feel now as though I missed out. Highlights from this article include discovering that:

 

Shaq not only owned two machines but made one of them the team travel video game. Yes, they carried it on the road!

Michael Jordan and Gary Payton were on the same team. Kinda.

Bill Clinton and 'The Big Hurt' Frank Thomas both had characters.

The game is haunted. Well, that's what the creator of the game says at least.

Check it out.

 

FDO

Sometimes it's hard...

...to be a Pacers' fan.

Marc Stein says,

April 14: Indiana at Washington (ESPN)
The Pacers somehow wind up closing out an interminably long 82 games against a team that wants the season to be over even more than they do.

 

FDO

Scattered Dreams

Shouldn't the Colts' stadium be referred to as The Stable?

FDO

Sean Tuohy

A couple years back I wrote a post in which I said I'd like to meet Sean Tuohy, the broadcaster for Memphis Grizzlies basketball. My only reason is that he seemed like the nicest guy around. In an industry in which self-promotion is only secondary to unabashed employing team promotion, Tuohy was consistently honest and kind, even when it did not obviously serve his interests. 

Somehow, today things clicked for me and I recognized his name from promos about the movie 'The Blind Side' starring Sandra Bullock. I haven't seen the movie yet and I may not but I thought I should check and see if Sean Tuohy has a Wikipedia page. He does. Clearly, Tuohy is rich enough that he doesn't need the job and since he has a career outside of basketball that may explain why he's liberated to be so honest. Whatever the cause, I respect his professional generosity. And I still want to meet him. 

FDO

Peyton's Place

well, his place in history continues to be elevated. Even though many Colts fans enter the playoffs with a a bad taste in their mouths, the rest of the league continues to be in awe of Peyton Manning who has won his record 4th NFL MVP award. This, like the previous 3, is well deserved.

I feel fortunate that I have been able to watch so many of his games. Witnessing history always feels nice to me, even if it's 'just' football.

FDO

Here I Go Again...On My Own

Well, apparently I'm the only person outside Texas who thinks the Cowboys will beat New Orleans Saturday night.

I don't want Dallas to win but I think they match up quite well with the Saints and are primed to (over?)perform. Dallas needs the game desperately, they are being counted out and they've been playing well. New Orleans may be getting a little heady. Unfortunately, they don't have the kind of big game experience that helps them prepare for the spotlight this game will produce. I hope I'm wrong but I expect Dallas to win and end the Saints' historic streak.

FDO

While I have the ball...

Here's a fun video clip. This is not aggressive defense.

The NBA is the land of confusion.



FDO



(h/t http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/ )

Just for 'kicks'...

An oldie but a goodie. In fact, one of my favorite commercials ever.

FDO

Will the Colts go undefeated this year?

Will the Colts go undefeated this year?

It feels strange that the Colts and Saints are both 10-0 this year yet virtually no one in the national media is suggesting that the Colts may go undefeated. A couple weeks ago, Mike Ditka predicted that the Saints would run the table but, so far, I’ve not heard anyone even ask that question about the Colts. In fact, numerous football analysts are ranking the Colts as the 3^rd best team in the league behind the Saints and Vikings (9-1) with some suggesting the Colts should be in a virtual tie with New England (7-3) for that spot. This seemed peculiar enough to me that I began wondering if the Colts really do have any hope of winning out. It looks like they have a decent chance to do just that. Here are some reasons why.

Schedule:

The most important consideration for victory is always the opponent. The Colts’ schedule for the remainder of the season is filled with playoff pretenders contenders. They have road games against Houston, Jacksonville and Buffalo and host Tennessee, Denver and the Jets. The Colts will be clear favorites in all those games and in the last two they’ll be playing against AFC East teams who are playing out the string. The Broncos will arrive at Lucas Oil playing desperate football but between a still wobbly Kyle Orton and their hideous defense, the Broncos will be lucky to still be in the game at halftime.

The division games are the ones that should worry Colts fans (and sports history lovers). All three of these teams will likely be in playoff desperation mode when they play the Colts. So far, none of them have been impressive. The Jags are 6-4 but have allowed more points than they’ve scored this year, a horrible sign for them. The Titans and Texans both have the capacity for a surprise win but if they get it, that will be more likely caused by Colts failings.

New England:

Yes, the Patriots may finally prove helpful to the Colts. Obviously, if the Colts keep winning, Bill Belichick’s already infamous 4^th and 2 call will take on historic proportions. Beyond that though, the Pats undefeated season of two seasons ago has dramatically reduced the level of ambient noise surrounding the Colts and Saints. So far this year, I’ve heard nothing at all about the ’72 Dolphins, still the only perfect team in NFL history. The Colts’ streak of regular season wins is getting more notice than being undefeated this year. ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook noted this week that the only game the Colts have lost in their last 20 was an overtime defeat in which they never saw the ball.  

There are probably some other Patriot related incentives for the Colts this year. This is clearly the most interesting and important rivalry in the last decade and although the momentum is in the Colts favor, the historic weight still says the Patriots have been better. An undefeated regular season would match New England’s only unique accomplishment.  (And just imagine the conversations between Rodney Harrison and Tony Dungy on Sunday Night Football!)

 

There are several other factors that I feel will help the Colts’ chances of going undefeated this year. I’ll toss out some thoughts about those in Part 2. 

FDO

Will the Colts go undefeated this year? Part 2

Will the Colts go undefeated this year?

 

Part 2

The Saints:

    No one is thinking about the Colts going undefeated and if the Saints beat New England Monday night, the drumbeat for a perfect Saints season will become deafening. It’s a great story to be sure and I’d love to watch the Saints go marching toward history. As long as that possibility continues, the Colts can stay under the radar and relatively pressure free.

 

Individual player goals:

    Even though the Colts won’t admit it publicly, they would love to see their players get individual recognition. For a team with such a consistent high level of achievement, the Colts have few perennial Pro Bowlers. Coming into the season, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney were the only guys everyone would have assumed to achieve that status. This year, there’s a good chance that Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Robert Mathis and Gary Brackett will join them in Hawaii. That possibility is enhanced by the extra attention winning a couple more games (and staying in line for an undefeated season) will provide. And yes, I think the Pro Bowl selection process is a bad joke but it’s still an honor.

 

The Manning factor:

At the moment, Manning is one of a small group on the inside track to the MVP. With a perfect regular season, Manning would almost certainly win that award. (The same is true for Drew Brees in New Orleans.) For Peyton, winning that award again this year would accomplish some impressive things. He would become the first 4 time MVP (a goal Brett Favre is in position to match 12 years after his last MVP!) and the first double repeat MVP winner.  In unofficial terms, another MVP season would clearly separate Manning from Tom Brady in the minds of unbiased football fans and would elevate Manning into the highest levels of the football pantheon. 

  

Quickies:

There are some other good reasons the Colts may keep pressing toward a perfect season this year.  For instance, instantly elevating Jim Caldwell into a top tier coach; blowing a perfect season late in the 2005 season then losing in the first round of the playoffs; and let’s not forget about the amazing Ewing Theory potential of being perfect after Tony Dungy leaves the team!

 

So, no, I’m not planning to bet on an undefeated regular season for the Colts but I wouldn’t bet against it either.

 

FDO